AI waifu is another example of the social isolation that I have been warning about. Meanwhile, I agree that the current AI bubble will deflate. Not pop, just shrink. We will still make progress, just not that fast as the markets are predicting.
Why does it still cost on the order of $10M to produce a movie? Why is it taking so long for LLMs to replace office jobs? Oh, that's right, most of what you need to know to do your job isn't written down. In my 2013 paper on the cost of AI, I said that the biggest cost will be extracting the 10^17 bits of knowledge needed to automate the economy through slow 5-10 bit per second channels like speech and writing at a cost of $5 per hour. That is on the order of $100 trillion. Training a new employee costs about 1% of lifetime earnings, even if it's not human. My estimate of 10^17 bits assumes 10^10 humans with 10^9 bits of long term memory each, of which 99% is known to at least one other person. This is much larger than anything that can be scraped off the Internet including ~10^15 words of private data like stored emails and texts. https://www.educatingsilicon.com/2024/05/09/how-much-llm-training-data-is-there-in-the-limit Longer term, progress will be slowed because we can't make transistors smaller than atoms and because humans are evolving to reject technology. Of the top 30 countries ranked by fertility, all but Afghanistan are in the poorest parts of Africa where the literacy rate for women is below 50% and people aren't online playing with their AI friends. On Tue, Jul 9, 2024, 3:05 AM Quan Tesla <quantes...@gmail.com> wrote: > I see an ai bust for 90+% of ventures. Not far off now. Probably, as soon > as language is sorted. > On Tue, Jul 9, 2024, 07:47 Alan Grimes via AGI <agi@agi.topicbox.com> > wrote: > >> Seriously... >> >> Lets look at the mechanics of this... According to the AI calendar, we >> are late spring, early summer. During the AI summer the rate of >> breakthroughs slows a bit but there are still many gains to be had in >> terms of consolidation and productization. THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM. We >> have many many thousands of papers to sift through and file before we >> can even start talking about an AI fall much less winter. This will take >> 2-3 years, at any point in time, a new breakthrough could emerge and the >> calendar gets reset to early spring... >> >> An AI fall would be characterized by widespread bankrupcies of the AI >> startups accompanied by a rapidly diminishing returns on investment >> (counting technical progress as equivalent to financial return.) >> >> Furthermore, we have crossed the AI waifu threashold, ie the point where >> an AI waifu becomes technically feasible. This fact alone means that >> there will never be another AI winter (with little activity or >> investment in AI). So if anyone starts talking about an AI bust, tell >> them to put a sock in it. They're wrong, and even if they aren't wrong >> they're jumping the gun by years. =| >> >> -- >> You can't out-crazy a Democrat. >> #EggCrisis #BlackWinter >> White is the new Kulak. >> Powers are not rights. >> > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T59fe5c237460bf34-Ma383f74a3244e1ae18ea4f56> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T59fe5c237460bf34-M627d9bc79d1ca3587ca773a6 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
