What VC invest in flows back and forth. Most partners in vc come from
the ranks of the companies the vc invested in and that then profited the
vc's back and made the future partners rich. So the "method of success"
depends upon the experience of the jr. partners and what they decide to
put $$ in is related to their risk experience. Facebook had _no_
method of monetization for the first 4 years. They were just given
runway and cash to expand with the understanding that it was so
compelling and sticky that pulling $$ out of the enormous user base
would be easy to generate $$ when the time came. VC "harvest" $$ from
their investments after IPO. They understand that they hold enough
shares to trigger runs on stocks if they pull out too fast after IPO
Typical harvests are over 10 years and after that they care little about
the companies. Until then they are very involved. ( Look at when
google was turned back over to the founders. ) ..
So "burning piles of cash" goes in and out of style.
Streaming is a whole separate animal due to all the ways that the
content is tied into legal knots. Look at the streaming companies and
most are tied to major content companies already so as to secure the
content through legacy agreements. VC wants little to do with that
pile of crap. They got burned out on that 15 years ago. You have to
have a very special proprietary key to that lock for them to be
interested and proof that the key fits the lock.
I've gone the VC route 3 times as part of exec teams. Once 40 years
ago when I didn't ask for enough to show I knew my head from my ass...
25 years ago when I was hooked to a company because of my "rep" and
watched us ( me included ) try to sell BPG optimization as a major
company possibility. And prior to that as part of a team that was
looking for second round for a collaboration tool. That was hard as the
users already liked the product but it was in a downturn in VC funding
and everything was getting rejected.
The hardest part of vc funding is that they are like sheep, when one
goes a particular direction they all go that direction. When one
company gets known as "hot" they all chomp at the bit to fund, otherwise
it's horrible what they do to the companies. They won't sign NDA's,
share info under the table, do stuff that should get them in front of
the FTC. "Investors" are still pretty much run by the VC's IMNSHO..
Just more through the back doors and buddy system... Because after you
get the little $$ out of the way you run into the ones with the deep
pockets and those are run by the VC's...
On 6/3/24 10:45 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
The old saying is "lose money on every sale but make it up on volume". The new
equivalent is "fake it 'til you make it". Amazon is the classic example of one that
worked out. Many have a non obvious revenue model that involve selling ads or customer data,
that's how TV manufacturers can sell TVs at cost.
But investors seem to be losing patience with business plans that just burn
piles of cash with no plan to ever become profitable. This seems to have hit
streaming companies, which everyone assumes are all profitable, but actually
most are not.
MoviePass seems to have been doomed, as was WeWork. There was Theranos. Seems like
there is a blurred line between "fake it 'til you make it" and outright scams
and pyramid schemes. All of us can attest that you need to ramp up to a certain number
of customers to achieve economies of scale, but it should be possible to show some math
how that leads to eventual profitability. Otherwise you're like the underpants gnomes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5ih_TQWqCA
-----Original Message-----
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Robert
Sent: Monday, June 3, 2024 11:52 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] MoviePass documentary
I consulted for three VC's after Nscp and L3... The wisdom in their thoughts
at the time was a home run in one out of 20 was doing well... Their thoughts
about founders was about 1/3 idea and 2/3 the ability of the founder to gather
talent around them... Your rolodex was as important as your execution...
Seed money is easy. A good presentation deck and glib tongue. Getting money
for the first round isn't that hard. Getting the second round was the test of
your business. 1MM seed, 4-10MM first, unicorns got 100MM for second, and the
sky was the limit on the 3rd...
On 6/3/24 7:18 AM, dmmoff...@gmail.com wrote:
" ...the startups that light piles of money on fire until it runs out
seem to be actively flying the plane into the dirt. Maybe they have
golden parachutes."
If at first you don't succeed, try and try again.
I read a quote from one of those zillionaire entrepreneurs that he had
to fail at seven businesses before he hit it big with one. So I guess
it takes a lot of practice to get it right. My question is how did he
get investment the 8th time after having those seven failures on his
rap sheet? Or the 2nd-7th time for that matter. That's gotta be
somebody with connections in the good-ol-boys network.
If investors would just give me 8 chances at startups I'm sure I could
be a self-made zillionaire too.
-Adam
-----Original Message-----
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2024 6:42 PM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' <af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] MoviePass documentary
That'll buff out.
Or if you're a Monty Pyton fan, "It's just a flesh wound".
Or if you've watched Roadkill on Motor Trend TV, "Dzus it back on".
The pilots here can tell me if there's really an expression CFIT
(Controlled Flight Into Terrain). But I think that's supposed to be
unintentional, whereas the startups that light piles of money on fire
until it runs out seem to be actively flying the plane into the dirt.
Maybe they have golden parachutes.
-----Original Message-----
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2024 3:27 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] MoviePass documentary
Bet that smarts.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/31/2024 10:09 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
fly the plane into the ground
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