On Apr 8, 2010, at 8:52 AM, Bob Friesenhahn wrote:

> On Thu, 8 Apr 2010, Erik Trimble wrote:
>> While that's great in theory, there's getting to be a consensus that 1TB 
>> 7200RPM 3.5" Sata drives are really going to be the last usable capacity.

I doubt that 1TB (or even 1.5TB) 3.5" disks are being manufactured anymore.
These have dropped to the $100 price barrier already.  2TB are hanging out
around $150.

> Agreed.  The 2.5" form factor is rapidly emerging.  I see that enterprise 
> 6-Gb/s SAS drives are available with 600GB capacity already.  It won't be 
> long until they also reach your 1TB "barrier".

Yep, seeing some nice movement in this space.

>> So, while it's nice that you can indeed seemlessly swap up drives sizes (and 
>> your recommendation of using 2x7 helps that process), in reality, it's not a 
>> good idea to upgrade from his existing 1TB drives.
> 
> It would make more sense to add a new chassis, or replace the existing 
> chassis with one which supports more (physically smaller) drives. While 
> products are often sold based on their ability to be upgraded, upgrades often 
> don't make sense.
> 
>> Now, in the Real Near Future when we have 1TB+ SSDs that are 1cent/GB, well, 
>> then, it will be nice to swap up.  But not until then...
> 
> I don't see that happening any time soon.  FLASH is close to hitting the wall 
> on device geometries and tri-level and quad-level only gets you so far.  A 
> new type of device will need to be invented.

It is a good idea to not bet against Moore's Law :-)
The current state of the art is an 8GB (byte, not bit) MLC flash chip which is 
162 mm^2.
In the space of a 2.5" disk with some clever packaging you could pack dozens of 
TB.
 -- richard

ZFS storage and performance consulting at http://www.RichardElling.com
ZFS training on deduplication, NexentaStor, and NAS performance
Las Vegas, April 29-30, 2010 http://nexenta-vegas.eventbrite.com 





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