Tim schrieb:
> I'm sure you're already aware, but if not, 22 drives in a raid-6 is 
> absolutely SUICIDE when using SATA disks.  12 disks is the upper end of 
> what you want even with raid-6.  The odds of you losing data in a 22 
> disk raid-6 is far too great to be worth it if you care about your 
> data.  /rant

Let's do some calculations. Based on the specs of

http://www.seagate.com/docs/pdf/datasheet/disc/ds_barracuda_es_2.pdf

AFR = 0.73%
BER = 1:10^15

22 disk RAID-6 with 1TB disks.

- The probability of a disk failure is 16.06% p.a.
   (0.73% * 22)
- let's assume one day array rebuild time (22 * 1TB / 300MB/s)
- This means the probability for another disk error during rebuild on
   the hot spare is is 0.042%
   (0.73% * (1/365) * 21)
- If a second disk fails there is a chance of 16% of an unrecoverable
   read error on the remaining 20 disks
   (8 * 20 * 10^12 / 10^15)

So the probability for a data loss is:

16.06% * 0.042% * 16.0% = 0.001% p.a.

(a little bit higher since I haven't calculated 3 or more failing 
disks). The calculations assume an independent failure probability of 
each disk and correct numbers for AFR and BER. In reality I found the 
AFR rates of the disk vendors way too optimistic, but the BER rate too 
pessimistic.

If we calculate with

AFR = 3%
BER = same

we end up with with a data loss probability of 0.018% p.a.



Daniel
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