In reply to David Roberson's message of Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:49:44 -0400 (EDT): Hi, [snip] >I saw where that Atlantic current is the assumed reason for the pause and it >might actually be the culprit. The climatologists also had a number of other >possible factors that they were considering before they finally chose that >particular one. Does it not concern you that this factor was just now >discovered? Surely a really good model of the climate system would have >included that factor previously while at the same time these guys were making >claims that they had great confidence in their earlier predictions. > >This type of situation is the root of my skeptical feeling toward them. On >several occasions, of which this is the latest, the models have been found to >fail to take into consideration very important factors that were later added >when the predictions did not match the measurements. I can only assume that >there are several, or perhaps many other factors that are waiting for an >opportunity to appear. This likely will occur a number of times in the next >100 years as the models continue to make erroneous predictions.
There are literally tens of millions of factors. At least one for each species on the planet. Each species interacts with the environment in one way or another, and thus each has an effect. Some have large effects, others less. It is impossible to create a model that includes all effects, or even more than a tiny fraction of them. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/project.html
