William Beaty <[email protected]> wrote: . . . since disbelief is itself a strong bias, what happens if we test the > opposite technique, and provisionally accept weird topics in order to study > them? Just try it, and everyone attacks you: "You actually BELIEVE in > that crap?!! ANYONE WHO TAKES THAT STUFF SERIOUSLY IS A CRACKPOT."
Yes, there does seem to be a strong reaction to provisional acceptance of strange ideas, or what you might call accepting an idea for the sake of argument. I suppose this is because of social pressure to conform. I feel it is also caused by fear of failure. Here is something that has been widely observed in investments, business decisions, safety and so on. When people are presented with an opportunity on one hand or a threat of equal magnitude on the other, they do more to avoid the threat than they would to take advantage of the opportunity. Along the same lines, they are often irrationally unwilling to forgo sunk costs in an investment. Suppose you invest in the stock and lose $1000. Your stock is beginning to recover and increase in value. You might feel unwilling to sell and shift the money out into a better opportunity that is likely to earn $1000 more quickly than the stock you now own. In research, suppose a fairy godmother gives you two choices: 1. You can investigate 10 conventional ideas. None will embarrass you but only one or two are likely to pay off, and not by much. 2. You can investigate 10 strange ideas. Nine of them will turn out to be completely wrong, to the extent that you will be hugely embarrassed in the eyes of your colleagues. One, however, is likely to be correct and will have a large payoff. There is no guarantee, but this is likely. I think most people will play it safe and go with option one. They are more concerned with the downside of wasting time and looking foolish than they are with the potential upside of making a major discovery. Martin Fleischmann and Stan Pons were the kind of people who would go with option 2. They told me so, and you can see that is what they did. They were fully aware of the trouble they were getting themselves into. People seem afraid of failure these days perhaps more than they did decades ago. Young people put off getting married and having children and making other commitments. I think some of them seek perfection and they want to be sure things will work out. When I was young I did not think twice about getting married or having children. It never crossed my mind to worry about the consequences. I'm not a fool. I knew that these things sometimes end badly, but that life is full of peril. Nothing ventured nothing gained. - Jed
