Jed said:
"That is an unsupported opinion. I do not think biological carbon based computers (brains) have any special properties that cannot be emulated in silicon or other materials, but I could be wrong." There are some biological carbon based computers (brains), that cannot ever be duplicated by any other brain whether it is carbon or silicon based. I personally would like to visit a church built and/or decorated by Michelangelo Buonarroti than by a robot or computer. But that’s just me. Of course the future time of robots will be a different world indeed. ** Cheers: Axil On Mon, Oct 8, 2012 at 11:07 AM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > I wrote: > > >> Unless you know of some specific technical limitation, material shortage, >> law of nature, or some other factor that will prevent progress toward >> a given goal, it is safest to assume that progress will continue and the >> goal will be met. There is no indication that robots are inherently unable >> to do any phase of construction. >> > > This is quite different from saying that "computers will definitely become > sentient" (that is, self-aware; conscious). We do not yet understand what > sentience is so we cannot predict with confidence that machines can achieve > it. I expect they can. That is an unsupported opinion. I do not think > biological carbon based computers (brains) have any special properties that > cannot be emulated in silicon or other materials, but I could be wrong. > > Robot can already do complex assembly jobs better than the best-trained > human being. They do these jobs in factories or on the operating table > during Lasik eye surgery. They cannot work on construction sites outdoors > mainly because these sites are chaotic and primitive, unlike organized > factory environments. I expect that robots are used in the construction of > prefabricated houses in Japan, and in things like prefabricated all-in-one > bathtub and shower units in the U.S. They certainly could be. Perhaps it is > not economical yet. > > In the future I expect every phase of house and building construction will > be prefabricated. Only the final assembly will be on site. The site will be > better organized than today, and construction will occur in a tightly > organized and scheduled sequence, like the construction of a tall building > in a major city today. > > When I say you can predict a technological outcome with confidence, I mean > an outcome that has a clear path where the physics are understood. Also I > mean something with a reasonably short-term payback, and a market that > anyone can see exists. Thus, I would not predict that gigantic passenger > interstellar space craft that operate close to the speed of light are > inevitable. That is much too far from today's technology. On the other > hand, I see no reason why interplanetary human colonization cannot be > achieved, with travel time between the planets of weeks or months. This is > especially likely if something like a space elevator can be constructed. It > seems likely to me that an elevator is possible, based on the book "The > Space Elevator." > > It is impossible to predict whether people will summon the will to make a > space elevator, or the capital. I am sure that people will make robots > capable of construction as soon as they can. Robot R&D is paying for itself > at every stage, nowadays. > > The final R&D expense to make construction site robots will be tiny > compared to the payback. Whether this will happen in 30 years, 50 years, or > 100 years I cannot guess. I suppose it will happen in stages, starting with > something like a robot that only lays roof shingles and hammers them > down. I do not know enough about robots to predict this in detail. I am in > the same position as someone looking at the steamship "The Great Western" > in 1838 and predicting that someday, within 50 to 100 years, all > transatlantic passenger service would be by steamship. That was a safe bet. > As it happens, that took about 60 years. > > - Jed > >
