Re: [Vo]:NY Times, "How Saudi Arabia Turned Its Greatest Weapon on Itself"

[Jed Rothwell]

I wrote:


> Once the writing is on the wall the price will collapse and never recover.
> I think it is starting to do that with coal, because natural gas, wind and
> solar have taken a large fraction of the coal market, and there is no
> reason to think they will not take the rest of it away over the next 30
> years.
>

U.S. coal consumption is down by 24% since 2001. See:

Consumption for electricity generation for coal, annual
Indexed to 2001 as percent

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/?src=home-f1#/topic/3?agg=1,0,2&fuel=8&geo=g&sec=o3g&linechart=ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-99.A~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-1.A~ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-94.A~ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-96.A~ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-97.A&map=ELEC.CONS_EG.COW-US-99.A&freq=A&chartindexed=1&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0

Coal as a percent of electric power generation has fallen 29%. I do not see
anything on the horizon that will reverse this trend. If things continue
this way, coal will gradually be replaced with wind, solar and natural gas.
See:

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/?src=home-f1#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vvg&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A&freq=A&start=2001&end=2015&chartindexed=1&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0

- Jed