On Feb 29, 2016, at 12:45 PM, Richard Gaskin wrote:

> Back in September I predicted that LC 8 might reach RC1 in March.  I've read 
> no specific time estimates from the team, but given the good progress on a 
> wide range of areas I'd guess that RC1 would likely occur no later than 
> April, and would feel reasonably comfortable* guessing that a July estimate 
> for Stable would seem achievable.
> 
> 
> * Any projection of ship dates from any one about any software is, 
> ultimately, a form of guesswork.  We have 50 years of ACM literature to back 
> that up, and insightful authors from Fred Brooks to Steven McConnell to 
> explain why this unpredictability persists.  Until when a system ships can we 
> know the ship date.  Prior to that the inevitable unpredictable things that 
> define our universe and the software development tasks we do within it will 
> come into play.  I always try to keep this in mind with all software from all 
> vendors.

Two principles that apply universally to predicting a stable software release 
date:

The first 90% of the task takes 90% of the time, and the last 10% takes the 
other 90% of the time.

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take 
Hofstadter's Law into account.

-- Peter

Peter M. Brigham
pmb...@gmail.com
http://home.comcast.net/~pmbrig

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