Testing the test instructions:

Without the fix this indeed fails
Note: You can run it with --verbose to see the issue in more detail if needed.

Plugins selected: Authenticator apache, Installer apache
Attempting to renew cert (cb-test-bionic.dd-dns.de) from
 /etc/letsencrypt/renewal/cb-test-bionic.dd-dns.de.conf produced an
 unexpected error: Account at /etc/letsencrypt/accounts/acme-v01.api.
 letsencrypt.org/directory/<hash> does not exist. Skipping.
All renewal attempts failed. The following certs could not be renewed:
  /etc/letsencrypt/live/cb-test-bionic.dd-dns.de/fullchain.pem (failure)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
All renewal attempts failed. The following certs could not be renewed:
  /etc/letsencrypt/live/cb-test-bionic.dd-dns.de/fullchain.pem (failure)


Install the fix (from -proposed eventually).
Upgrade works fine.


Running renewal again with the fix works:

$ sudo certbot renew --force-renewal
Saving debug log to /var/log/letsencrypt/letsencrypt.log
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Processing /etc/letsencrypt/renewal/cb-test-focal.dd-dns.de.conf
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Using server https://acme-v02.api.letsencrypt.org/directory instead of legacy 
https://acme-v01.api.letsencrypt.org/directory
Plugins selected: Authenticator apache, Installer apache
Renewing an existing certificate
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
new certificate deployed with reload of apache server; fullchain is
/etc/letsencrypt/live/cb-test-focal.dd-dns.de/fullchain.pem
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Congratulations, all renewals succeeded. The following certs have been renewed:
  /etc/letsencrypt/live/cb-test-focal.dd-dns.de/fullchain.pem (success)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


We can see the expected avme-v2 redirection message \o/
And renewal worked.

$ sudo certbot certificates
Before
    Expiry Date: 2021-02-03 13:11:37+00:00 (VALID: 89 days)
Now
    Expiry Date: 2021-02-03 13:24:49+00:00 (VALID: 89 days)

** Description changed:

  [Impact]
  
  Certbot users who first used < 0.26.0 have their configurations locked
  into using ACMEv1. This is a deprecated protocol. Let's Encrypt
  brownouts for ACMEv1 are scheduled to begin at the beginning of 2021,
  and Let's Encrypt will stop serving ACMEv1 in June 2021.
  
  Based on Let's Encrypt's metrics, 23,847 users were counted as being
  locked into ACMEv1 in this way. These users will start receiving
  certification renewal failures unless they are patched.
  
  Users affected are users who first used Certbot on Xenial or first used
  Certbot on the release pocket version of Certbot in Bionic.
  
  Users who first used Certbot >= 0.26.0 are not affected. This includes
  users who used Certbot on Bionic after 0.27.0-1~ubuntu18.04.1 (published
  2019-10-29) and users who first used Certbot on Focal or above.
  
  [Test Case]
  
- TBC
+ Get Focal/Bionic systems that you can get a public IP and DNSname on
+ comment #17 shows how to do so with Canonistack, but any other method is fine 
as well
+ 
+ 1. get certbot (I'll use apache for testing)
+   $ sudo apt install apache2 python3-certbot python3-certbot-apache
+ 2. Get a ACMEv2 cert (current default)
+   $ sudo certbot --apache
+   # go along the questions and use the DNS you have set up
+ 3. modify the server endpoint to v1 manually
+   $ sudo sed -i -e 's/acme-v02/acme-v01/g' /etc/letsencrypt/renewal/*
+ 4. renew Cert (will try to use the patched v1 sever)
+   $ sudo certbot renew --force-renewal
+ 
+ This will fail without the fix and "simulate" what will happen to old 
installs (which had a v1 config) after the upgrade.
+ Comment #18 has sample output of good/bad case.
  
  [Regression Potential]
  
  Since the endpoint is being changed, users who are controlling reachable
  endpoints (such as with egress firewalls or proxies) may not be able to
  reach the new endpoint until they have adjusted their configurations.
  However as the old endpoint will stop functioning soon, deliberately
  making this change appears to be the least worst option.
  
  Renewal configuration parsing of the server URL is being modified. Users
  with unusual configurations such as those that have different server
  URLs defined may find themselves on untested paths.
  
  Users trying to debug a problem configuration will find it surprising
  that a configuration that specifies the LE ACMEv1 endpoint goes to the
  LE ACMEv2 endpoint instead. However, again this seems to be the least
  worst option.
  
  [Further Details]
  
  Let’s Encrypt is in the process of shutting down ACMEv1. The full
  shutdown process will be completed in June 2021 with temporary brown-
  outs starting at the beginning of the year; more specific details are
  available at https://community.letsencrypt.org/t/end-of-life-plan-for-
  acmev1/88430.
  
  When ACMEv1 is shut down, many older versions of Certbot will be unable
  to get new certificates. ACMEv2 support was first made default in 0.26.0
  for new certificates, but it wasn’t until 1.6.0 that certificates which
  had originally been issued using ACMEv1 were transitioned to ACMEv2. The
  original update was supposed to move people off of ACMEv1, but due to
  some old configuration management code, we missed a small group of early
  Certbot users.
  
  Based on recent counts, there are a total of 23,847 distinct non-EOL
  Ubuntu users still using ACMEv1 who use the version of Certbot packaged
  in their system’s package manager (the versions available in 16.04
  universe, 16.04 universe updates, 18.04 universe, 18.04 universe
  updates, and 20.04). These users will no longer receive certs in June,
  but would be automatically upgraded to ACMEv2 if the package for their
  system were updated.
  
  The commit that switches ACMEv1 users to ACMEv2 is here: 
https://github.com/certbot/certbot/commit/340a4280eacc3eac8915996d89ff0c0a0cd023f9
  One option to address the upcoming shutdown is to backport the commit into 
older versions of Certbot.
  
  Another option to address the shutdown, which is preferable from our
  perspective, would be to update Certbot to 1.6.0+. First, there’s the
  inherent risk in backporting an individual change, especially onto much
  older code. Released versions are tested extensively both on our systems
  and by our users, so we’re much more sure of their stability than a
  backported patch. Additionally, Certbot continues to improve over time,
  closing up bugs, supporting more edge cases, improving usability, and
  offering more robust and modern security practices.
  
  Since we made backwards incompatible changes in 0.40.0 and 1.0.0, to
  update Certbot to a newer version, our other components will have to be
  updated as well. Certbot relies on our other libraries `acme` and
  `josepy`, and we have a series of plugins which will need to be updated
  as well, including the `certbot-nginx` and `certbot-apache` plugins, as
  well as our `certbot-dns-*` plugins. Certbot 1.0.0 in particular
  contained significant API changes, and if any of our packages are
  updated to 1.0.0 or newer, it will probably be easiest to update all of
  them. josepy may be fine depending on the version of certbot, as certbot
  1.0.0 relies on `josepy>=1.1.0`, which is already available packaged on
  all relevant systems. But Certbot 1.0.0 also requires `acme>=0.40.0`,
  which is only one release behind 1.0.0, so it would probably be easier
  to update it to a matching version. Basically, I would recommend
  choosing a certbot version, then updating `acme`, `certbot-nginx`,
  `certbot-apache`, and `certbot-dns-*` to that version. None of our 3rd
  party dependencies should need to be updated.
  
  One thing to note when choosing a version is that Certbot 1.7.0
  deprecated Python 3.5 support, which may be necessary on older systems,
  so 1.6.0 may be a better choice than later versions on older systems.
  
  Updating to anything past 0.38.0 will require the `distro` dependency,
  which is not currently packaged on Xenial. It is in Bionic and it has no
  transitive dependencies that aren't in Xenial:
  https://packages.ubuntu.com/bionic/python-distro
  
  Certbot 0.40.0 and 1.0.0 introduced backwards incompatible changes;
  these include:
  
  * CLI flags --tls-sni-01-port and --tls-sni-01-address have been removed.
  * The values tls-sni and tls-sni-01 for the --preferred-challenges flag are no
  longer accepted.
  * Removed the flags: `--agree-dev-preview`, `--dialog`, and 
`--apache-init-script`
  * Certbot's `config_changes` subcommand has been removed
  * `certbot.plugins.common.TLSSNI01` has been removed.
  * Deprecated attributes related to the TLS-SNI-01 challenge in 
`acme.challenges` and `acme.standalone` have been removed.
  * The functions `certbot.client.view_config_changes`, 
`certbot.main.config_changes`, 
`certbot.plugins.common.Installer.view_config_changes`, 
`certbot.reverter.Reverter.view_config_changes`, and 
`certbot.util.get_systemd_os_info` have been removed
  * Certbot's `register --update-registration` subcommand has been removed
  * When possible, default to automatically configuring the webserver so all 
requests
    redirect to secure HTTPS access. This is mostly relevant when running 
Certbot
    in non-interactive mode. Previously, the default was to not redirect all 
requests.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1893274

Title:
  Certbot will stop working for 23,847 users with upcoming Let's Encrypt
  deprecation

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