Public bug reported:

There seem to be a lot of these reports. From do-release-upgrade:

Could not calculate the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade

egrep "WARN|ERROR" /var/log/dist-upgrade/main.log

2016-06-02 11:42:49,437 ERROR Package brscan4 has no priority set
2016-06-02 11:42:57,958 WARNING Can't mark 'ubuntu-desktop' for upgrade 
(E:Unable to correct problems, you have held broken packages.)
2016-06-02 11:42:58,412 WARNING Can't mark 'ubuntu-mate-core' for upgrade 
(E:Error, pkgProblemResolver::Resolve generated breaks, this may be caused by 
held packages.)
2016-06-02 11:42:58,824 WARNING Can't mark 'ubuntu-mate-desktop' for upgrade 
(E:Error, pkgProblemResolver::Resolve generated breaks, this may be caused by 
held packages.)
2016-06-02 11:42:58,917 ERROR Dist-upgrade failed: 'The package 
'ubuntu-minimal' is marked for removal but it is in the removal blacklist.

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 15.10
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:15.10.14.4
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 4.2.0-36.42-lowlatency 4.2.8-ckt8
Uname: Linux 4.2.0-36-lowlatency x86_64
NonfreeKernelModules: zfs zunicode zcommon znvpair zavl
ApportVersion: 2.19.1-0ubuntu5
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: MATE
Date: Thu Jun  2 11:37:49 2016
EcryptfsInUse: Yes
InstallationDate: Installed on 2011-05-15 (1845 days ago)
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu 11.04 "Natty Narwhal" - Release amd64 (20110427.1)
PackageArchitecture: all
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to wily on 2016-06-02 (0 days ago)

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug dist-upgrade wily

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1588506

Title:
  15.10 to 16.04 upgrade failure: "Could not calculate the upgrade"

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