I have determined that:

 * I can reproduce this bug with the alternate CD but not with the
   desktop CD (I haven't investigated why not).
 * The problem is indeed caused by the clock warping back one hour
   between the system installation and the first boot.  In my case
   this is due to confusion and mismatch between the CMOS clock and
   the supposed timezone.
 * fsck notices and fixes the "last mount" and "last write" times.
 * fsck then complains about the "last check" time, indirectly,
   by claiming the fs hasn't been checked for 49710 days.

I think that:

 * It is not reasonable for us to assume that the CMOS can be correct
   at this point and in particular we mustn't assume that the system
   clock will not warp backwards shortly after installation.  There
   are many reasons why this might happen, including that the
   installer setup may not have as good access to ntp timeservers as
   the installed system.  I don't think we should try to get all of
   this perfect (in particular, there is guesswork involved which is
   never going to be right without asking the user questions, which we
   want to avoid).
 * If the last check time is in the future by less than some amount
   (say, <=24h or <=48h) e2fsck should just fix it and not complain.

Ian.

-- 
always fscks first boot after install
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/131201
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