A regular-auto-launch-interval of 0 means that update-manager will
launch as soon as updates are available.  With update-notifier's lack of
support for phased-updates it is likely that the notification is due to
an update undergoing phasing which update-manager chooses not to
install, hence the message your system is up to date.

One way to confirm this would be to include the output of 'apt-get
upgrade' in a terminal.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1222096

Title:
  "Software Updater" popup displays every hour

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