I have the same problem going from 6.06 to 8.04 LTS. Like the OP, my log
shows release-upgrader adding:

deb http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu dapper-backports main/debian-
installer

to:

/etc/apt/sources.list.d/prerequists-sources.dapper.list

which causes a subsequent 404 server error as it tries to fetch:

http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/dapper-backports/main/debian-
installer/binary-i386/Packages.gz

which does not exist since dapper files have been moved from the archive
sub domain to the old-releases sub domain. I think the file it is
looking for is at:

http://old-release.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/dapper-backports/main/debian-
installer/binary-i386/Packages.gz

If it is getting this outdated information from
http://changelogs.ubuntu.com/meta-release-lts as the OP suggested, can't
someone just update that page to reflect the new file location? If it is
not getting it from there, can you please tell me where is is getting it
from so I can manually correct it? Thanks!

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/810344

Title:
  Can't upgrade dapper to hardy

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