As a lifetime true-blue dyed-in-the-wool statistical wonk, this solar cycle presentation is the statistical equivalent of Jascha Heifitz playing the violin.
We always have to wait and see how things play out, for sure. But... And a very delightful "but..." at that... But... For the first time in my lifetime this presentation on the Hale Cycle describes a method capable of "predicting the solar cycle past", being able to predict what happened at a point in the past only from what was known prior to that point in the past. The Hale Cycle is a 22-ish year cycle with a positive and negative half. The Hale halves vary from 8 to 14 years, if I heard that right. Our 11-ish year sunspot cycle apparently derives from the two phases of a Hale Cycle. No explanation for what drives the variation in the Hale Cycle, but that's for all the budding solar physicists. There is a passing reference to a correlation between Hale events and El Nino, climate stuff. But not expounded. The flip in the Hale Cycle is a sharp, measurable event, maybe happened last month, would explain going from nothing on 10m and 15m in October, to bum 160 and lively high bands again in the CQWW CW. Won't spoil it for the viewer, but there is a surprising estimate for cycle 25, using the same method that correctly predicts cycle 19 from cycle 18, the Dalton minimum from prior cycles, basically predicts 20th century solar cycle intensities. This one is a must-watch: https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g The statistical methodology is absolutely top-shelf. Wow. It's really great to see something done this well. 73, Guy K2AV On Tue, Dec 1, 2020 at 8:33 AM Michael Walker <[email protected]> wrote: > It isn't about the 11 year Solar Cycle. That is just the symptom. > > It is about the 22 year Hale Cycle. > > Well worth the watch. I won't spoil the ending. > > Mike va3mw > > https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g > _________________ > Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband > Reflector > _________________ Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband Reflector
