With reference to the comic Gautam linked to at the start of this thread, you might find this of interest: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21771
The relevant excerpt: As I write, several polls give Obama about 47 percent and McCain about 45 > percent, a decline of several points for Obama from the polls of May and > July. The rest of the respondents say they are undecided. At the same time > the state-by-state estimates by pollster.com show Obama leading in > electoral votes, with 102 such votes a "toss-up." The numbers will probably > have changed by the time you read this. Yet now and later, there's a chance > that the real percentages will be the reverse of those I've cited. Some > people who are telling pollsters they're for Obama could actually be lying. > > Such behavior has been called *the "Bradley Effect* ," after Tom Bradley, > a black mayor of Los Angeles who lost his bid to be California's governor > back in 1982. While every poll showed him leading his white opponent, that > isn't how the final tally turned out. Things haven't been far different in > some other elections involving black candidates. In 1989, David Dinkins was > eighteen points ahead in the polls for New York's mayoral election, but > ended up winning by only a two-point edge. The same year, Douglas Wilder was > projected to win Virginia's governorship by nine points, but squeaked in > with one half of one percent of the popular vote. Nor are examples only from > the past. In Michigan in 2006, the final polls forecast that the proposal to > ban affirmative action would narrowly prevail by 51 percent. In fact, it > handily passed with 58 percent. That's a Bradley gap of seven points, which > isn't trivial. > > Pollsters contend that respondents often change their minds at the last > minute, or that conservatives are less willing to cooperate with surveys. > Another twist is that more voters are mailing in absentee ballots, and it's > not clear how those early decisions are reflected in the polls. Yet the > Bradley gap persists after voters have actually cast their ballots. Just out > of the booth, we hear them telling white exit pollers that they supported > the black candidate, whereas returns from these precincts show far fewer > such votes. Thus they lie to interviewers they don't know and will never see > again. Barack Obama wants to think "white guilt [over treatment of blacks] > has largely exhausted itself in America." I'm less sure. Almost all people > who reject black candidates say they have nonracial reasons for doing so. > And many undoubtedly believe what they're saying. So I'm not persuaded that > the Bradley gap won't emerge this year. The Obama campaign would do well to > print signs to post prominently in all its offices: ALWAYS SUBTRACT SEVEN > PERCENT! > -- Amit Varma http://www.indiauncut.com
