On Fri, Jul 25, 2008 at 12:07:11PM +0530, Udhay Shankar N wrote: > Anyone have any thoughts on when any of these pie in the sky > technologies will actually, y'know, come to market?
The article describes many disparate technologies. Some are worthwhile, some are not. One of the key aspects of viability is EROI analysis http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786 Particularly, this graph is relevant: http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ch_balloon_tod.png We can make about anything, but only a few things make sense from energy balance. Also, the question of the fuel form (gas, liquid) and compatibility (infrastructure costs) arises. As such bioethanol is not worthwhile, and cellulosic ethanol most likely not worthwhile too. Synfuels are wortwhile, but Fischer-Tropsch really fouls up the balance. The output can be tuned from methanol to light or heavier hydrocarbons though, which makes it compatible with existing infrastructure. Synfuels are viable started above $40/barrel, long-term (i.e. not volatile). I think it's reasonable to say we passed peak oil sometime 2004, so nonrenewable will go up longterm. I think what has the brightest future right now is electricity (both wired and batteries), hydrogen from water electrolysis and synfuels (biomass, natural gas, coal). The future looks rather bright for artificial photosynthesis, and the currency could be methanol. In regards to garbage, I wonder why everybody keeps forgetting biogas. Pyrolysis to feed bacteria with to make bioethanol is crap. In general, the level of discussion in the mainstream press is appalling. Nobody seems to understand basic chemistry, or even be able to do simple arithmetics. > Previously: > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/silk-list/message/8305 > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/silk-list/message/17606 > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/silk-list/message/21354 > > Udhay > > http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/business/24fuel.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all > > The Energy Challenge > Gassing Up With Garbage -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org";>leitl</a> http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
