On Wed, Jun 20, 2007 at 10:08:50PM +0200, Eugen Leitl wrote: > Single-metric views are always lopsided. I suggest to read > the "Second Great Depression". It does make sense to me; feel
that may not be single-metric, but it's very single-sided. it focuses on the US almost in isolation, hardly discusses the problems of, say, germany, which has much worse future public debt shortfalls due to its demographic imbalance (a much bigger problem in europe than the US). > > > default, as all states in the past with fiat currencies did. > > > > huh? most countries have fiat currencies today. > > I suggest taking a longer view, something in a century range, > or slightly above. Just because black swans are rare it doesn't > mean you can ignore them. sure, but you don't show that just because some states with fiat currencies defaulted, and others haven't yet, they must default "taking a longer view". > Accrued interest is exponential, real industry growth is less so. This means > that *all* fiat currencies will collapse, on the long run, unless > you get rid of the exponential process. Fat chance. this assumes that real industry growth (which is also exponential) is lower on an annual basis than real interest rates, which is certainly not true empirically, nor is it necessary, though it can certainly happen at many times and places. -rishab
