ai-boun...@engr.orst.edu] On Behalf Of
Lehner, Paul E.
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2009 4:06 PM
To: Jean-Louis GOLMARD; Austin Parker; Konrad Scheffler; Peter Szolovits
Cc: uai@ENGR.ORST.EDU
Subject: Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem - Last Version
Austin, Jean-Lous, Konrad, Peter
Thank you for your r
Dear Paul,
Bayesian inference is still appropriate for both problems. There are two
issues here:
1) the subjectivist Bayesian viewpoint is confusing because it does not
make it explicit on which information you are conditioning when setting
up your prior - it becomes much clearer if you
ures.
Tod
_
From: uai-boun...@engr.orst.edu [mailto:uai-boun...@engr.orst.edu] On Behalf
Of Lehner, Paul E.
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2009 4:06 PM
To: Jean-Louis GOLMARD; Austin Parker; Konrad Scheffler; PeterSzolovits
Cc: uai@ENGR.ORST.EDU
Subject: Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem - Last Version
Au
Austin, Jean-Lous, Konrad, Peter
Thank you for your responses. They are very helpful.
Your consensus view seems to be that when receiving evidence in the form of a
single calibrated judgment, one should not update personal judgments by using
Bayes rule. This seems incoherent (from a strict B
Dear Paul,
since I was in the consensus for my last response, I give you again my
response to this new problem.
The principle of my solution is always the same: to try to build a
probabilistic model.
a) I first reformulate the problem in more familiar notations for me,
with a diagnos
