Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem

Peter Szolovits wrote: If TWC is really calibrated, then your conditions 5 and 6 are false, no? I agree with Peter's solution. If I build a model for this problem, it must contain at least two variables: Snow and TWC_report. According with my model, the TWC forecasts are calibrated if and onl

[UAI] Job posting: Institute for Computational Sustainability Postdoc/Research Associate position

We solicit applications for a postdoctoral fellow or research associate position in the area of machine learning and statistical methods, in the new Institute for Computational Sustainability, Faculty of Computing and Information Science, at Cornell University. The Institute for Computational Susta

Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem

All - The "Bayes ratio" (or odds ratio) interpretation of Bayes rule is enlightening, since it reveals the strength of evidence in a way not clear from just looking at the probabilities. A 5% prior chance becomes odds of 1:19 against snow. With Paul's assigned sensitivity (probability of sno

[UAI] PAKDD 2009 Data Mining Competition

-- PAKDD 2009 Data Mining Competition -- Overview The 13th Pacific-Asia Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining conference (PAKDD 2009) is pleased to host another da

[UAI] PAKDD 2009 Conference

The Call For Participation: PAKDD 2009, Bangkok, Thailand (27-30 April 2009) http://www.pakdd2009.org Call for Participation The 13th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD-09) Imperial Queen Park Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand 27-30 April 2009 http://itpe.siit.tu.a

Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem - Version 2

UAI members Thank you for your many responses. You've provided at least 5 distinct answers which I summarize below. (Answer 5 below is clearly correct, but leads me to a new quandary.) Answer 1: "70% chance of snow" is just a label and conceptually should be treated as "XYZ". In other word

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The School of Informatics of the University of Edinburgh invites applications for a Lectureship in Machine Learning from outstanding candidates in any area of machine learning (including models, algorithms and applications). We particularly welcome applications from candidates who are developin

[UAI] Final CfP, Submission open: HYCAS 2009 @ IJCAI-09

[Apologies if you receive this more than once!] Final Call for Papers The submission is now open: http://www.hycas.org/2009/papers/ Submission deadline: March 6 2009 HYCAS 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON HYBRID CONTROL OF

Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem

Dear Paul, if you consider TWC prediction as a part of the probabilistic model, you get 4 probabilities for modelling a model which needs 3 probabilities to be specified. (the model is given by the 2-way table given by (Snow/not snow and snow prediction of 70%/not snow prediction of 70%).