Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-15 Thread MFPA
-BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE- Hash: SHA512 Hi On Friday 14 November 2014 at 3:01:59 PM, in , Philip Jackson wrote: > Does > he have to pause between each iteration to see if he > has 'something good' ? Could, presumably, stop after "several" iterations to check the last "several" result

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-14 Thread Johan Wevers
On 14-11-2014 16:01, Philip Jackson wrote: > Does anything prevent the key breaker getting lucky and cracking it first try? No. It's just extremely unlikely. > It seems to me that all discussions on key breaking with their very large > numbers always assume that the last try is THE ONE. Nu, usu

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-14 Thread Robert J. Hansen
Thanks for that (and the previous) It makes the brain hurt but raises a few questions in my mind. The real purpose of a Fermi estimate isn't to give you solid answers: it's to give you an appreciation of the problem. If it does that, it's done its job. (Also, a listmember named Ineiev poin

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-14 Thread Philip Jackson
On 14/11/14 03:36, Robert J. Hansen wrote: > Whoops! >> so 10**30 years. The universe is about 10 billion years old, or >> 10**13 years, so ... our brute-force key cracker takes 10**17 times >> longer than the age of the universe in order to brute-force a 128-bit >> key. > > 10 billion is 10**10,

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-14 Thread Pete Stephenson
On Fri, Nov 14, 2014 at 10:25 AM, Johan Wevers wrote: > On 14-11-2014 3:15, Robert J. Hansen wrote: > >> 10**38 attempts at 10**6 bitflips per attempt equals 10**44 bitflips >> total. At carpet-scuffing power, that's about 10**15 joules of energy, > [...] >> But to make our brute-forcer 10**30 ti

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-14 Thread Johan Wevers
On 14-11-2014 3:15, Robert J. Hansen wrote: > 10**38 attempts at 10**6 bitflips per attempt equals 10**44 bitflips > total. At carpet-scuffing power, that's about 10**15 joules of energy, [...] > But to make our brute-forcer 10**30 times faster (so it > can run in one year), our brute-forcer also

Re: Fermi estimates

2014-11-13 Thread Robert J. Hansen
Whoops! > so 10**30 years. The universe is about 10 billion years old, or > 10**13 years, so ... our brute-force key cracker takes 10**17 times > longer than the age of the universe in order to brute-force a 128-bit > key. 10 billion is 10**10, so it takes 10**20 times the age of the universe. Bu

Fermi estimates

2014-11-13 Thread Robert J. Hansen
A while ago Hauke asked if the statement in the FAQ about a brute-forcer leaving the Earth uninhabitable was correct. I said it was, but I didn't break out the math. Now that I have a few minutes to breathe, here's the full answer. It's a Fermi estimate, which means it's not going to be perfectl