Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

In the late 60s I worked on Project Talent in which data for 440,000 high school students was collected and analyzed. This included , test scores, interests, socioeconomic status, etc. I've mentioned this before. The project included longitudinal following of the participants for decades. That fo

[FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Friam poll: How soon until classical telephone polling is just gone? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html If, as boasted, facebook knows when their users are pregnant before the users know, th

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

> > So one more thing goes into what is both a black box and a private > rather than public box.  It will take over after the first few times > it produces much more reliable results, but since we won’t know what > it is based on — AIs don’t explain themselves — we will have no > ability to extra

[FRIAM] Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

Eric/Glen, et alia - I have my own near stress-narcolepsy around extreme conspiracy theories, perhaps for the reason you call out here:  to stretch to identify a range of threats and then seem to put all of the energy into normalizing them rather than picking the ones you might be able to address

Re: [FRIAM] Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

How do the names of these threads get changed? --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 8:45 AM Steve Smith wrote: > Eric/Glen, et alia - > > I have my own near stress-narcolepsy around extreme conspiracy theories, > perhaps

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

I used to teach a course called "AI and expert systems" for management students at Carnegie Mellon. I remember that Mycin, a diagnosis system for infectious diseases and one of the most famous expert systems, had some explanation capability. According to Wikipedia, "At the end, it [Mycin] provide

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Thanks for that, Eric. It's clarifying. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Nov 11, 2020, 9:43 AM David Eric Smith wrote: > Yes, it seems that the kind of reporting that would be natural for expert > systems does not have a good reas

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

I think I agree with the idea that *some of* our conceptual dynamics are already coupled with physical dynamics. However, I also think the recent discussion of the pyrrhonian problematic and vernacular conceptions of "mechanism" highlight where that's *not* the case. There seems (to me) an inex

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Frank Wrote > In the late 60s I worked on Project Talent in which data for 440,000 > high school students was collected and analyzed.  This included , test > scores, interests, socioeconomic status, etc. I've mentioned this > before.  The project included longitudinal following of the > participan

Re: [FRIAM] Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

On 11/11/20 8:57 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > How do the names of these threads get changed? I changed this one manually... I simply edited the Subject Line in my "Reply To List" response. When Owen was active here, he was a stickler against "thread bending" and to the extent that my replies are

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Isn’t this a wonderful example of the incoherence of a notion of executive consciousness? The system that explains is not the system that executes. n Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gma

[FRIAM] covid planning tool

Now this is a tool I can use and have some degree of confidence when using it. https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ davew - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://re

Re: [FRIAM] Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

I think the thread-bending horse left the barn a decade ago. Even Owen could bend a thread or two in his time. . N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- F

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

My flippant first approximation answer is: once there are fewer boomers. While the national polls likely used no AI anywhere in their pipeline, I suspect that any organization with *real money* on the line designed predictive models making heavy use of AI and not bothering with telephones for the d

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

That's an unjustified assertion. There's plenty of evidence that our CNS *simulates* the world and reuses components in both interacting with the world and simulating the world. Your dualism will not be tolerated. >8^D There's a branch of xAI where the black boxes are "explained" dualistically

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

My generous read is that the Trump enablers are allowing Trump to rage for a while, let the lawsuits demonstrate their pointlessness, let him fiddle with the government pointlessly, and hope that he'll come up with a suitably Trumpian way to concede while not conceding, probably a grandiose resigna

[FRIAM] The Last Threadbender was: Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

> I think the thread-bending horse left the barn a decade ago. Even Owen could > bend a thread or two in his time. . > > N NLT- If I believed that literally and were (more) obtuse than I am I  might start removing Subject lines entirely.  I do not believe they are superflous and depend on

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Ah. Glen. As usual. Like a stiletto to the heart. "dualism", indeed! I suspect that somewhere in those two sentences hides the answer I have been trying get about what a computer model of consciousness might look like. But that would take another thread. To be honest, I don't have the ba

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Steve, Did you hear the interview with the nice young man who thought that we should suspend the constitution for the next 20 years and let the Trump family handle things. It was said completely guilelessly. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology C

Re: [FRIAM] Threadocide was: The Last Threadbender was: Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

Steve, He who has the last word is a thread-murderer. Nick T Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of Steve Smith Sent: Wednesday, Nov

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Yes, much agreed Glen. I am getting to the point where something combining tedium and stress-narcolepsy puts me to sleep, wading through more newspaper articles saying in (performative?) outrage: McConnell has just said this self-contradictory and hypocritical thing! How could he! How can his

Re: [FRIAM] Uncanny Valley was: Biden beats Trump

Speaking of Owen, did he just decide there was insufficient signal to noise ratio? On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 12:00 PM Steve Smith wrote: > On 11/11/20 8:57 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > > How do the names of these threads get changed? > > I changed this one manually... I simply edited the Subject

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

- rec - All very well said... > It might be my own fantasy, but I think a majority of Americans do not > disagree about the ends.  They would prefer an equitable society where > none of the usual suspects biased any one person's pursuit of > happiness in life.  They would prefer to live in a world

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

> Steve, > >   > > Did you hear the interview with the nice young man who thought that we > should suspend the constitution for the next 20 years and let the > Trump family handle things.  It was said completely guilelessly.  > >   > > Nick > This was Roger's Rant, (Rave, more apropos?) not mine,

Re: [FRIAM] covid planning tool

Excellent example of the power of things like R-Shiny, Jupyter, et al. I'm a little concerned with this part, though: https://github.com/jsweitz/covid-19-event-risk-planner "NOTE: THE REASONABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS CALCULATION EXCEEDS THE SCENARIOS SHOWN HERE" Matlab? Pffft! What were you think

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Roger writes: < These people weren't voting for rascism, misogyny, narcissism, authoritarianism, xenophobia, gimp shaming, science denialism, or all that other baggage, they were overlooking it for reasons. > Many of those that could not work due to COVID restrictions are often in battleground

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

But Marcus, What does your lack of empathy GET you? Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

It gives one the freedom to think outside the box on how to resolve the situation. From: Friam On Behalf Of thompnicks...@gmail.com Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 10:46 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump But Marcus, What does

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

And it questions the implicit assumption that others think at all like you think. "The problem with communication is the illusion that it exists." I was happy to hear that a leader of the Proud Boys is finally being more true to himself ... more honest and authentic! https://www.newsweek.com/pr

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

M But isn’t empathy ALSO a tool for arriving at solutions. I stupulate that it is not the ONLY such tool. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

It is. But in this case, not an acceptable solution. From: Friam On Behalf Of thompnicks...@gmail.com Sent: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 11:20 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump M But isn’t empathy ALSO a tool for arriving at solu

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

M. I think of empathy as a sensor that makes me more likely to predict the behavior of an antagonist. Think of martial arts techniques that involve giving your opponent what he wants. So if your opponent wants to rush forward with a knife, you help him along in that project until he is lyi

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Yes, my claim is that the sensor has sensed. Sure, more intelligence is always good. Acquire it, act on it, but do it without emotion. I remember after the first go around on Trump, Van Jones had a series where he went out into Trumpland and interviewed people. It seemed to me he learned

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

> On Nov 11, 2020, at 8:54 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > Don't some AI systems include subsystems for explaining their reasoning? I don’t know how common that is, Frank. The few people I know who are active and skilled deep-learning practitioners have told me (if I have understood) that it

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Given that most human explanations are post-hoc rationalisations, I expect that machine learning systems trained to explain the outputs of other systems might work. I believe some people in the ML community are trying this, but it is not all that common yet. It is hard enough to get the black-box p

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

Yes, it seems that the kind of reporting that would be natural for expert systems does not have a good reason to map to deep neural nets. To the extent that I refer to the right architectures as “expert systems”, I think of them as having a knowledge structure dictated by the architect. Readin

Re: [FRIAM] How soon until AI takes over polling?

One thing that is done is to characterize how important variables are, even though there are often a multiplicity of functions that compose the variables. While a decision tree gives a clear explanation (one composition) for a prediction, it often requires many of them to capture all of the ca

[FRIAM] (no subject)

>From Wired Science Who should get a coronavirus vaccine first? It’s likely that health care workers will be the first to get a vaccine when it’s available, and they probably should. Physicists who work on network theory, though, have another way of thinking about vaccine distribution. To reduce

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Marcus, Do you have close friend or family member with strong character and high intelligence that is also a Trump voter? My brother-in-law is a submarine captain. It was helpful to have a 3-hour call with him last night. I come away with the idea that his mental model is not opposed to mine...it

Re: [FRIAM] (no subject)

WGBH, the PBS local channel, put up a graphic last night showing that 40% of nurses weren't sure they'd get vaccinated even if it were available. -- rec -- On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 5:32 PM David Eric Smith wrote: > Vaccinate them or put them in solitary. > > Social butterflies in the time of cho

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

BTW, I worry smiling Pompeo wasn't in denial he was predicting a 'smooth transition to a second term'. Meanwhile, PBS is showing the Rise of the Nazis see https://www.pbs.org/show/rise-nazis/. It took 4 years for the Nazis to destroy democracy. -Robert C On 11/11/20 4:11 PM, David Eric Smit

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

People like Barr and Pompeo are happy to exploit the consequences of Trump’s financial desperation for their authoritarian agenda. Authoritarianism is not an uncommon personality trait – they would find support in the population. Trump just wants to be the winner, but at any cost. At some le

[FRIAM] Steve's brother-in-law

Steve- Ask your submarine captain BiL if he would like to go to sea with Trump as his executive officer. Tom - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

About time to look this up... https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/origin-bleeding-heart-liberal Before the 20th century, the phrase “bleeding heart” was popular in the religious-tinged oratory of 19th century America. Throughout the 1860s, it comes up often in poetry, essays, and political speec

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

"bitch, you knew I was a snake" - the little prince by way of natural born killers. -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuHK8iROgJ0&ab_channel=emilbraun -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com

Re: [FRIAM] (no subject)

Vaccinate them or put them in solitary. Social butterflies in the time of cholera. I know why the caged social butterfly sings. The thorn social butterflies. The health care workers really are owed more than they can ever be repaid. Just as trump is. Eric > On Nov 11, 2020, at 4:26 PM, Geo

[FRIAM] Guided Apophenia

wicked good (but frightening) analysis of QAnon https://medium.com/curiouserinstitute/a-game-designers-analysis-of-qanon-580972548be5 - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subsc

Re: [FRIAM] Steve's brother-in-law

I've had more than a few 3 hour phone conversations with SteveG and I can assure you that there is a Submarine Captain somewhere babbling to his crew about bidirectional path tracing, phi-theta/phi-theta mapping and dual-field theory.   I can visualize a stigmergic field in the world's oceans with

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

So at some point, too, though, there are actual facts and things and events in the world, which aren’t just cut from the fabric of human impression and attitude. Suppose the following; as I was walking thisPM, after finally watching the Van Jones TED that Glen circulated, it seemed quite believ

Re: [FRIAM] Biden beats Trump

Eric quoted: After that, the phrase was fully ensconced in political short-hand and quickly claimed by liberals as a positive trait. Really. I have always used it as a term of [self] mockery for a kind of low-cost left-wing concern for the disadvantaged. Whenever I use the word, I alwa

Re: [FRIAM] Steve's brother-in-law

On Wed, Nov 11, 2020 at 5:52 PM Tom Johnson wrote: > Steve- > Ask your submarine captain BiL if he would like to go to sea with Trump as > his executive officer. > He said he would not. He prefers being at sea knowing his Commander in Chief is President Trump, After I told Danny about your back

Re: [FRIAM] Steve's brother-in-law

:Nice graphic. Please ask Dr. Strangelove to remove "exaptation" - it must have been sticking to the bottom of Nick's shoe when he walked in the tent. ;-p ___ stephen.gue...@simtable.com CEO, Simtable http://www.simtable.com 1600