[FRIAM] What's coming - how to defeat the virus

The doctor who helped to defeat smallpox explains what's coming: either enough people get the disease and become immune, or a vaccine is developed to help us become immune. Both would stop the virus.  https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/Labs

Re: [FRIAM] What's coming - how to defeat the virus

For what its worth — found confirmation from six sources — hydroxychloroquine alone or taken in combination with azithromycin, can fight the disease. If you have the upper respiratory form, they can deter and ameliorate the descent into the lungs. They help minimize the "slime" that covers your

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is. I gather the real issue isn

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/20/emily-landon-coronavirus/ On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 8:54 AM Gillian Densmore wrote: > Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My > concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of > perspective. One

Re: [FRIAM] What's coming - how to defeat the virus

I believe it makes sense to wait until a real vaccine is found. US drug developer Moderna from Cambridge, Massachusetts, is running first tests for a coronavirus vaccine in early-stage trial. Inovio from Pennsylvania works on a similar drug. The German company BioNTech SE also tries to be among

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Gillian writes: "One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not making it through this, what ever it is. " In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road accidents.[1] There have been 4,032 fatalities from COVID-19 so far. The governor of California annou

[FRIAM] Papers on asymptomatic transmission and serology

In the distributed FRIAM meeting yesterday I mentioned these results, but I thought you might also want to see the commentary with them. This is an email from last week from one of my daughters (Joanna) who is a microbiologist at Victoria University in Wellington, NZ. —Barry Fir

[FRIAM] The covid death rate in the US

Yesterday Jim showed a plot of deaths in Italy that indicated the growth rate was, possibly, falling off some. I just redid my US plot updated with yesterday’s data, and it shows the US rate *accelerating*. The plotted points are definitely curving upward and the doubling time is now 3.0 days.

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

While I'm sympathetic with the idea that the relative magnitude of this threat *might* be on the same order as "hit by a car", and that to the extent that panic behaviour has it's own risks and unintended consequences, I think  there is a qualitative issue at hand as well. It is as if the number

Re: [FRIAM] The covid death rate in the US

MITRE’s calculation is even more dire https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/publications/COVID-19_MITRE_Action_Paper_March-2020.pdf On Mar 21, 2020, at 8:36 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:  Yesterday Jim showed a plot of deaths in Italy that indicated the growth rate was, possibly, falling

Re: [FRIAM] Papers on asymptomatic transmission and serology

Barry - Really great writeup from your daughter in Wellington.   It reinforces and adds well to what I've been hearing from my own daughter (Molecular Biologist in FlaviVirus lab at OHSU in Oregon) who have actually run PCR based tests using the WHO information on themselves (a dozen or so scienti

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

@Stephen Smith (while I find out how to a reply to the right person in Gmail): ah ok. That's what I'm concerned about with distorted information. >From what I've heard, and read on this list it's basically the fear of the unknown and some really smart, and clever people making as best guesses a

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Although kind of a silly simulation, and since we are offering simulations up, here is one that I wrote for the Santa Fe Institute last year: https://jonzingale.github.io/explorables/epidemics/epidemics.html Jon FRIAM Applied Complexity

[FRIAM] Fwd: FW: Modeling COVID-19

As simple--and explanatory--as it gets. Enjoy! (Please let me know if it's TOO simple. I'm really having fun.) -- Forwarded message - Date: Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 2:14 PM Subject: FW: Modeling COVID-19 To: Merle Lefkoff This email is to inform you of our COVID-19 simulato

Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Yes, exactly. > 1.8 million people at a 1% fatality rate. That’s what you get in countries that can give the best of their health service to patients who get very sick. Italy’s death rate is currently around 10%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[FRIAM] A Complex systems look at the coronavirus

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvgbmd/a-complex-systems-theorist-explains-how-we-can-stop-coronavirus Not surprising, this is interesting work from Yaneer Bar-Yam. -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA merlelefk...@gmail.com mo