Dikutip & diringkas daripada salah satu milis USA punya.
Boleh Percaya, boleh Tidak ......
...... The obvious conclusion is: U.S. real estate is no longer a bubble. It's
affordable once again. The median family can afford the median home in most of
America.
Sure, we have an oversupply of homes for sale. It happens in recessions.
That'll work itself out. No big thing. (Really!) And sure, it will likely take
many years for the market to stabilize, much less recover. But the bubble is
gone.
Are stocks outrageously overpriced and doomed to fall?
Remember, in Japan in late 1989, many sectors traded for over 100 times
earnings. In plain English, if you bought that business privately, it'd take
you 100 years of similar earnings to break even.
How about in the U.S. today? The situation is much different than Japan back
then... The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average is about 12. By that standard measure of value,
Stocks are the cheapest they've been in a quarter century...
That's hardly a stock market bubble!
Home prices aren't the big problem now. Neither are stock prices.
So what exactly is the problem in America right now?
Obviously, it's the banking system. But do you really understand what's going
on? Let me explain it...
In short, you can't borrow money now. Nobody can. Banks are afraid to lend
anyone any money (including each other). This problem can seriously spill over
into the entire world economy...
As a simple example, let's say you have a shop that sells T-shirts in the
summertime. Every spring, you borrow money to buy your inventory. If the bank
cuts your line of credit, then you are out of business. Your employees lose
their jobs. The store might close. And the Chinese factory that makes your
shirts is out of work as well.
Most people on Main Street think the government is trying to save Wall Street
bankers. That's not it. It's trying to save the line of credit for the T-shirt
shop owner - it's actually trying to save Main Street.
I have no doubt Ben Bernanke and the boys will succeed. They will find a way to
get credit in that shop owner's hands.
So while it feels bad out there... Real estate is actually affordable, stocks
are cheap, and Ben Bernanke is committed to cranking out dollars until the
banks will lend again.
Meanwhile, people are downright fearful.
Instead of being scared, you should think about buying. Stocks are 1) cheap and
2) hated. We're just missing 3) our uptrend...
Then, it's time to buy!
Good investing....
