I'm most thinking about the mudslides, because there were a lot of big fires recently.
-----Original Message----- >From: George Schick <bhim...@gmail.com> >Sent: Jan 17, 2010 9:36 AM >To: RBW Owners Bunch <rbw-owners-bunch@googlegroups.com> >Subject: [RBW] Re: Batten Down, California (particularly NorCals) Coming At >us! > >Even the weather crew on WGN here in Chicago has been talking about >this event building in the Pacific lately. They're a more detail >oriented group of forecasters who use multiple models to predict >weather patterns. I hope this is not too devastating - floods, heavy >snow, mud slides, etc. for the NorCal region, but as you say, it looks >ominous. > > >On Jan 17, 10:58 am, Ray <r.sh...@sbcglobal.net> wrote: >> A friend who has a son that works at Sacto international airport >> received this weather update via The Western Coastal and Marine >> Geology, U.S. Geological Survey this morning. >> >> Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern >> Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our >> weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over >> the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from >> reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a >> 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm >> systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over >> the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream >> directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous >> dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at >> the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. >> The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so >> these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy >> rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the >> lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least >> the following >> >> Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south >> of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon . Above 3000-4000 >> feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be >> unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly >> prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, >> possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all >> said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that >> (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time >> for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful >> as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the >> following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in >> excess of 3-4 inches. >> >> That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of >> NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches >> in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at >> lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas. >> This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are >> virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming >> an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after >> next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the >> potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. >> >> Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days >> 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out >> beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in >> such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely >> high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. >> Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at >> relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately >> warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation >> will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does >> not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be >> sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of >> dry antecedent conditions). >> >> In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result >> from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep >> low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early >> next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these >> winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread >> damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are >> likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at >> 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some >> point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) >> draw closer. >> >> In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active >> across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The >> potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point >> during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain- >> on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern >> California , a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course >> of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay >> tuned.”
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