Even the weather crew on WGN here in Chicago has been talking about this event building in the Pacific lately. They're a more detail oriented group of forecasters who use multiple models to predict weather patterns. I hope this is not too devastating - floods, heavy snow, mud slides, etc. for the NorCal region, but as you say, it looks ominous.
On Jan 17, 10:58 am, Ray <r.sh...@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > A friend who has a son that works at Sacto international airport > received this weather update via The Western Coastal and Marine > Geology, U.S. Geological Survey this morning. > > Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern > Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our > weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over > the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from > reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a > 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm > systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over > the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream > directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous > dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at > the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. > The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so > these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy > rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the > lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least > the following > > Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south > of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon . Above 3000-4000 > feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be > unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly > prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, > possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all > said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that > (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time > for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful > as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the > following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in > excess of 3-4 inches. > > That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of > NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches > in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at > lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas. > This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are > virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming > an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after > next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the > potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. > > Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days > 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out > beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in > such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely > high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. > Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at > relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately > warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation > will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does > not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be > sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of > dry antecedent conditions). > > In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result > from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep > low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early > next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these > winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread > damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are > likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at > 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some > point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) > draw closer. > > In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active > across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The > potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point > during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain- > on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern > California , a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course > of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay > tuned.”
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