The reason Saint Sheldon recommends that is that a flat rear tire almost 
never is dangerous.  If we took a poll and counted up the total number of 
rear flats we have cumulatively experienced, it would be a big number. 
 Let's put that in the denominator.  Now, of those rear flats, let's take 
another poll and count up the total number of ER visits that occurred as a 
direct result of those rear flats.  I will go out on a limb that's a small 
number.  Put that in the numerator.  

That ratio:  (ER visits because of a rear flat)/(total rear flats) is the 
risk that LeahFoy took by riding that tire to utter exhaustion.  It was a 
tiny tiny risk.  It's not even fabric that is showing.  It's just a 
different color rubber showing in her photo.  

Time to replace?  Absolutely.  
Would I have replaced sooner?  Yes.  
Should Leah replace her next rear tire sooner?  Yes.
Was Leah putting herself in extreme risk?  Very very slight risk.  
Is Leah lucky to be alive?  We are all lucky to be alive.  

Bill Lindsay
El Cerrito, CA

On Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 12:39:24 PM UTC-8, Steve Palincsar wrote:
>
> Sheldon recommends exactly what Patrick Moore described.
>
> *Well-meaning cyclists, even some mechanics who don't know any better, 
> sometimes try to deal with this by swapping tires, putting the less worn 
> front tire on the back wheel, and moving the worn-but-usable rear tire to 
> the front. The idea is to equalize the wear on the two tires, but **this 
> is a serious mistake, don't do it!* 
>
> * The only time tire rotation is appropriate on a bicycle is when you are 
> replacing the rear tire. If you feel like taking the trouble, and use the 
> same type of tire front and rear, you should move the front tire to the 
> rear wheel, and install the new tire in front. *
>
> * The reason for this is that the front tire is much more critical for 
> safety than the rear, so you should have the more reliable tire on the 
> front. *
>
> * If you have a blowout, if it is on the rear tire, you have a very good 
> chance of bringing the bike to a controlled stop. If your front tire blows, 
> you can lose steering control, and a crash is a real possibility. *
>
>
> On 02/15/2017 01:31 PM, Eric Norris wrote:
>
> The great Sheldon Brown recommends rotating tires when the rear tire is 
> replaced: 
>
> http://www.sheldonbrown.com/tire-rotation.html 
>
> --Eric N
> [email protected] <javascript:>
> www.CampyOnly.com
> Campyonlyguy.blogspot.com
> @Campyonlyguy
>
>
> On Feb 15, 2017, at 8:59 AM, Patrick Moore <[email protected] 
> <javascript:>> wrote:
>
> Time for a new one! One recommended practice is to rotate the relatively 
> fresh front tire to the rear, and put the new one on the front, thus 
> ensuring that the tire whose condition is most important to safety is 
> always at the front.  
>
> But good for you for getting in all those miles!
>
> On Tue, Feb 14, 2017 at 5:00 PM, LeahFoy <[email protected] 
> <javascript:>> wrote:
>
>> I am no bike mechanic, as the following photos will prove. But I do check 
>> things out and (mostly) notice when things are wrong, honest! I bought my 
>> bike in late 2012 from RBW headquarters, and I don't get to ride as much as 
>> a lot of you folks, so I thought I was doing alright with the tire tread. I 
>> have a fendered bike, and I now know that YOU MUST NOT EVALUATE YOUR BACK 
>> TIRE  SOLELY BY LOOKING AT YOUR FRONT TIRE.
>>
>> I was sitting cross-legged, waiting for the boys to be dismissed from 
>> school. Imagine my shock. The first photo shows the deceptive angle in 
>> which I thought all was well. The second reveals the painful truth. It 
>> would be a looonnngggg trek pushing that bike uphill loaded with school 
>> stuff. To the bike shop I go, in the morning!
>>
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>
>
> -- 
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> **************
> *The point which is the pivot of the norm is the motionless center of a 
> circumference on the contours of which all conditions, distinctions, and 
> individualities revolve. *Chuang Tzu
>
> *Stat crux dum volvitur orbis.* *(The cross stands motionless while the 
> world revolves.) *Carthusian motto
>
> *It is *we *who change; *He* remains the same.* Eckhart
>
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>
>
>
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