< It defines a recession as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income and other indicators.">
That's a convenient and wish-washy subjective measurement subject to misinterpretation and abuse whereaqs the standard definition of two quarters of negative GDP growth is not. -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Adam Buckland Sent: Sunday, 1 February 2009 1:58 AM To: ProFox Email List Subject: RE: [OT] Obama Gives Keynes His First Real-World Test Hi Bob, Whilst the normal definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth... QV: The US entered a recession in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Its business cycle dating committee, which is considered the arbiter of whether the US is in recession, met on Friday to make the decision. The NBER says that the US economic expansion lasted 73 months, from November 2001, before contracting. It used a broad range of economic indicators, such as employment and production, to make this judgement. In a statement, the committee said that the "decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession". It said that employment peaked in December 2007 and has been falling every since. And it said that personal income began falling in the first quarter of 2008, while industrial production peaked in January 2008. The NBER uses key monthly indicators of economic output, including employment, industrial production, real personal income, and wholesale and retail sales - to determine when economic growth has turned negative, rather than relying solely on two quarterly declines in GDP. It defines a recession as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income and other indicators." The seven members of the committee who made the decision include economists Robert Hall (Stanford), Martin Feldstein (Harvard), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard) and James Poterba (MIT). Another member of the committee, Christiana Romer (Berkeley) who was appointed last week to head president-elect Obama's council of economic advisors, did not participate in the decision. Although a private sector body, the NBER has been dating the business cycle since 1929. It does not forecast the length of the recession. Adam. -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Bob Calco Sent: 30 January 2009 19:27 We're not in a depression yet (the economy grew 1.3% in 2008), but we sure as hell will be soon enough. It didn't have to be this way, but now there's no way to stop it. [excessive quoting removed by server] _______________________________________________ Post Messages to: [email protected] Subscription Maintenance: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profox OT-free version of this list: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profoxtech Searchable Archive: http://leafe.com/archives/search/profox This message: http://leafe.com/archives/byMID/profox/[email protected] ** All postings, unless explicitly stated otherwise, are the opinions of the author, and do not constitute legal or medical advice. This statement is added to the messages for those lawyers who are too stupid to see the obvious.
