Read two articles this week that claimed AI will reduce human work to
3.5 or 4 days per week. Cheer!!! Wait - two things are going to happen:
1. 20-25% layoff and those that remain pick up the jobs of the fired.
2. Everyone goes to 28-32 hours per week and guess what you'll get
paid. That's right - 28-32 hours. The State of Connecticut has a 32
hour work week, and the employees get paid for 32 hours.
If 10 years is an accurate assessment, that will let us old farts age
out and retire so the younger don't get fired.
On another note, I just wrote a movie script. Okay, no I didn't - Bard
wrote it for me. Bard gave me three choices, and I liked #2. I
reformatted it into a two-column script, had to fix two errors
(apparently Bard doesn't know that the first word following a colon is
capitalized, and it didn't know the difference between cocoa and
cacao). Bard also snuck in something about ethical sourcing of
chocolate. So I began researching it. So now the script is 70% AI
written and I rewrote the last 30% in a revolutionary twist at the end.
This is in contrast to a short short film I had in the First Annual AI
FilmFest in October where the script was 70% human and 30% AI written.
In both cases, the actual script generation was done in about 15
seconds. In the October film, it took me 40 minutes to reformat it. In
the current project, it took me 3 hours to reformat/research.
AI is our friend, but we really need to keep a tight leash on it.
Regards,
George Toft
On 12/6/2023 2:00 PM, trent shipley via PLUG-discuss wrote:
If AI can take over junior level knowledge jobs now, it stands to
reason AI will mature fast enough to keep pace with the rate at which
junior level practitioners would have gained experience to do
mid-level and senior jobs.
It's an eventuality that the robots make people obsolete. The only
questions are
1) whether it happens in 5, 20, or 200 years.
2) a) whether all humans live affluent fulfilling lives, b)
whether Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos live affluent,
fulfilling lives, and the rest of us live in Darfur. c) Skynet suffers
no primates to live.
On Sat, Dec 2, 2023 at 2:35 PM George Toft via PLUG-discuss
<[email protected]> wrote:
Thanks for posting.
IMHO, the future is not in tech, as this article defined it, but
closely
related: Identity and Access Management (IAM) and Privileged Access
Management (PAM), Mainframe operations (yes, mainframes are still
here),
Red Team (ooooh - sexy :) ), and Data Analytics and Machine Learning.
The pay is definitely comparable to this article's top 5, if not
higher.
Whereas I liked being a sysadmin, my job got shipped to Argentina for
$6/hr (last I heard, they were up to $10/hr). That's a really bad
place
to be. If you want to live a nice lifestyle ... and I've been saying
this since 2005 ... you have to do something that can't be
off-shored.
Do something that must be done in this country. Lately, this has
come
to mean:
1. Be inquisitive. How can I make this cheaper, faster, less
resource-intensive? Why did it break? How do I keep it from ever
breaking again? Will this failure happen elsewhere? Three
principles
for success: Make it easier for the User; make it cheaper; make it
more
efficient.
2. Challenge the status quo. Just because it has always been
this way
doesn't mean it's the best way now.
3. Write the solutions flowcharts. If you follow a script (AKA
flowchart) to arrive at solutions to problems, you can be replaced
by an
AI, specifically, an expert system, and in 5 years, a Generative
AI like
Bard or ChatGPT. Expert systems been around since the 60's. Hell, I
wrote an AI (simple machine learning) in 1990 that corrected spelling
errors at the command line based on user performance. You need to be
the one generating the flow chart for the folks to follow.
4. Be able to create metrics on everything you do. "If you can't
measure it, you can't manage it" is the mantra of management this
decade. I've had to become really creative with my metrics to show
improvement over time, especially when I begin to alter User behavior
before I figured out the metric. Oopsies. I've also discovered
how to
create metrics that track the adoption and consumption of our
services,
which helps management when they choose insane paths like replacing a
Gartner Magic Quadrant product some some Open Source stuff that's
"freeeee." For those that don't know me, I've been an OS advocate
since
1998, but there ain't no such thing as a free lunch and when Managers
see $0.00 licensing costs, they oftentimes fail to understand the
local
engineering effort required to meet that Proprietary product's
capabilities. Yes, this is my hot topic this week as I battle three
levels of management on a fool-hardy decision whose ramifications
they
don't understand.
I'm in the process of changing careers. The biggest problem I see is
the total lack of people that can do the above. Our replacements
don't
exist. My whole US team is within 5 years of
retirement/resignation and
we have nobody to replace us. Wanna thrive in the next 20 years,
be the
one that can do the above. Be our replacements.
BTW - I just had a film in the First Annual AIFilmFest and I
interrupted
the film to sound the alarm about Generative AI taking over junior
level
jobs. But I rant ...
Cheers!
George Toft
On 12/2/2023 7:30 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote:
> Hi,
>
> Found thins interesting:
>
>
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/12/01/these-are-the-10-highest-paying-tech-jobs-in-the-us/?sh=276f0e8c515a
>
>
> Keith
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