Excerpts from S Krish's message of 2015-07-20 17:47:50 +0200:
> Check out this amazing TEDTalk:
> Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why startups succeed
> http://on.ted.com/h15YB

meh.
read the transcript if you want to save the time,
but to save even more time, here is the summary:
  "The number one thing was timing. Timing accounted for 42 percent of the
   difference between success and failure. Team and execution came in second,
   and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,
   that actually came in third. ...
   The last two, business model and funding"

he talks about the need to assess timing, but unfortunately doesn't tell much
about how to do it, which is really the crux of the matter.

in hindsight it is of course easy to see how the timing factor applies.
but before, it's like trying to predict the future.

and then, how does that relate to pharo or smalltalk in general?
how can we assess the timing for pharo's success?

did smalltalk miss its chance, so we should give up?
or is it still coming? glass bowl anyone?

there is no actionable advice in there.
what shall we do? 
wait, and we'll know the timing is right when we see it?

the only advice i can extract is that, because we can't predict the timing,
don't put all eggs in the same basket, and while pushing pharo, don't push so
hard that the future depends on the push to succeed. instead make sure that the
project can continue even if the time is not right, so that it is still alive
when the time is finally right.

to actually make an attempt at prediction we'd have to look at developer needs.
what are developers needs now, and does pharo deliver to fill those needs? 
(i believe it is pretty clear that pharo is still missing a few things, mostly
on the integration side with other systems)

can we predict what developers will need and expect in 5 years, and can pharo
develop to match those needs?

these questions are dear to my heart because i am asking them myself for my own
project. i believe, i have a solution that many developers need, but as far as
i can tell most developers are not aware of the problem yet. i hope that in
time they will become aware, and that by then my project will be ready and 
thrive.

we'll see.

greetings, martin.

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