I wrote:
> This might be a bug in the LIKE estimator (if so, it's in 8.2.3 as
> well).  I don't have time to look closer right now, but can you show us
> the pg_stats row for orders_smaller.order_number?

Oh, never mind that ... on inspection, the NOT LIKE selectivity
estimator is obviously broken: patternsel() doesn't realize it needs
to negate the results of the operator when applying same to histogram
entries.

                        regards, tom lane

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