This is the script of my national network radio report yesterday on
the L.A. Fires and the Limits of Technology. As always, there may have
been some minor wording variations from this script as I presented it
live on air.
- - -
So first of all our hearts go out to everyone who has been devastated
by these wildfires -- lives lost -- homes of all sizes, apartments,
trailer parks, businesses, landmarks, so much completely gone -- it's
an immense tragedy. And there are going to be many lessons learned
from this, but one we do need to consider is so fundamentally basic
that it's almost easy to miss.
And that's the reality that our technologies have limits, and that as
much as society behaves as if it's controlling Mother Nature,
ultimately it's Mother Nature who's always in control.
Predictably there's already politically motivated finger-pointing
blame games going on from various politicians in both parties and and
their surrogates, and others, and a tremendous amount of
misinformation and purposeful disinformation is being pushed.
Personally, I don't think that's helping ANYONE and I wish they'd just
keep their politics to themselves until the fires are completely out
and recovery efforts can really get going. There will be plenty of
time for investigations and figuring out mistakes and responsibilities
and who's to blame, but that time ISN'T right now.
But since there is SO much false information out there currently,
let's discuss some technical realities. First, L.A. has plenty of
water at the moment. I've lived in L.A. my entire life, and I've seen
the weather getting more and more erratic and extreme the entire time,
but we had a couple of years with fairly wet rainy seasons just before
this current one where we've seen virtually no significant rain. One
reservoir among our many was down for maintenance, but reportedly
citywide water supplies are in good shape from those rainy years.
But just having plenty of water overall doesn't mean there are
practical ways to get it quickly to where you need it in an emergency.
Hilly, mountainous areas like Pacific Palisades and Altadena where
there have been the most devastating fires, are typically provided
water by VERY large tanks at high locations, that are kept filled by
pumps, then the water is fed down for use via gravity. It's done this
way due to the basic physics that control the pumping of liquids
upward -- the same exact principles that apply in tall buildings.
So even if you had another full local reservoir, you'd still be
limited by the size of those tanks, and there are practical limits to
how large you can make them to deal with any reasonably foreseeable
situation.
But these fires occurred when humidities in many areas were 10% or
lower, vegetation was dry from lack of rain this season, and the Santa
Ana winds were blowing with gusts over 100 miles per hour -- that's
category 2 hurricane levels! Firefighting experts note that L.A. is
overall one of the most wildfire prepared cities in the world --
distant firefighters often come here to train -- but that there was no
possible way to control those fires until wind levels dropped way
down.
They say you could have had limitless water, thousands of fire trucks,
and an army of firefighters, but the only effective way to attack
fires like these is from the air -- with water and fire retardant
dropping helicopters and planes, and they couldn't fly in those winds.
When another fire started while the winds were much lower, I actually
saw how an almost literal highway of helicopters and planes went back
and forth and contained the fire in hours at around 1000 acres with no
structures involved and no lives lost.
Yes, it's very sobering and rather scary to be reminded that for all
our technology we're still at the mercy of the weather in so many
ways.
Perhaps if some of the big brains spending their time building
generative AI systems that nobody asked for or wanted, would instead
concentrate on designing new ways to fight wildfires, we could make
more progress in such an important area. But when you go up against
Mother Nature in situations like this with our existing
technologies -- what we have right now -- Mother Nature is going to win.
And it's a lesson that we really, really need to understand.
- - -
L
- - -
--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lau...@vortex.com (https://www.vortex.com/lauren)
Lauren's Blog: https://lauren.vortex.com
Mastodon: https://mastodon.laurenweinstein.org/@lauren
Founder: Network Neutrality Squad: https://www.nnsquad.org
PRIVACY Forum: https://www.vortex.com/privacy-info
Co-Founder: People For Internet Responsibility
_______________________________________________
pfir mailing list
https://lists.pfir.org/mailman/listinfo/pfir
