These numbers seem very large today but a decade from now they won't at all. We don't need to design everything for the requirements in 2020 but we should have some view on where things are going. More swag calculations...
In 2020... 60,000,000 servers worldwide (I'm assuming this doesn't grow super quickly as instead of more, we're making more powerful with additional cores/RAM per server) 50% of those servers are in "cloud" so 30,000,000 I'll call a "major cloud player" somebody with 10% market share, so 3,000,000 servers For geographic spread I'll assume 10-15 facilities so 200,000-300,000 servers per facility Each facility may be broken up into zones so the question is at what point do we make the cross-over from intra-cloud to inter-cloud? If it is at the zone level we're looking at 20-50k servers per zone with increasing VM density so 50-100 VMs per server for a total of 1 million to 5 million VMs. At each point in the architecture where the cost model changes for inter-VM traffic we need to have a logical construct in place. Potentially zone->facility->region->world is enough granularity, we may need zone->facility->metro area->region->world. Where we switch from intra-cloud (singular management domain) to inter-cloud (connected through a cloud directory service with federation) needs to take into account the overhead for brokering the additional complexity of inter-cloud communication versus the overhead of a larger singular management domain. Bret Piatt OpenStack.org Twitter: @bpiatt / Mobile 210-867-9338 Open Source Cloud Infrastructure: http://www.openstack.org -----Original Message----- From: openstack-bounces+bret=openstack....@lists.launchpad.net [mailto:openstack-bounces+bret=openstack....@lists.launchpad.net] On Behalf Of Erik Carlin Sent: Thursday, December 30, 2010 12:15 PM To: Rick Clark Cc: openstack@lists.launchpad.net Subject: Re: [Openstack] Some insight into the number of instances Nova needs to spin up... I suggest we consider the limits of a single nova deployment, not across all regions. To Pete's point, at a certain scale, people will break into parallel, independent nova deployments. A single, global, deployment becomes untenable at scale. I agree with Pete that 1M hosts (and 45M Vms) is a bit out of whack for a single nova deployment. As a frame of reference, here are a couple of links that estimate total server count by the big boys: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-got-the-most-we b-servers/ http://www.intac.net/a-comparison-of-dedicated-servers-by-company_2010-04-1 3/ Google is the largest and they are estimated to run ~1M+ servers. Microsoft is ~500K+. Facebook is around 60K. This link (http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/08/24/google-may-own-more-than-2-of-all-serv ers-in-the-world/) is a few years old and puts the total worldwide server count at 44M. I submit that setting the nova limit to match Google's total server count and 1/44th of the total worldwide server count is overkill. The limits I suggest below are not per AZ, but per nova deployment (there could be multiple AZs inside of a deployment). I think we may need to clarify nomenclature (although it may just be me since I haven't been too engaged in these discussions to date). I know at the last design summit it was decided to call everything a "zone". Erik On 12/30/10 11:42 AM, "Rick Clark" <r...@openstack.org> wrote: >Actually it was 1M hosts and Ivthink 45 million vms. It was meant to >be across all regions. Jason Seats set the number arbitrarily, but it >is a good target to not let us forget about scaling while we design. > >I think eventually all loads will be more ephemeral. So, I think I >agree with your numbers, if you are talking about a single availability >zone. > >On 12/30/2010 11:25 AM, Erik Carlin wrote: >> You are right. The 1M number was VMs not hosts. At least, that was >>from one scale discussion we had within Rackspace. I'm not sure what >>the "official" nova target limits are and I can't find anything on >>launchpad that defines it. If there is something, could someone >>please send me a link. >> >> I'm am certain that Google can manage more than 10K physical servers >> per DC. Rackspace does this today. >> >> If I combine what I know about EC2 and Cloud Servers, I would set the >>ROM scale targets as: >> >> ABSOLUTE >> 1M VMs >> 50K hosts >> >> RATE >> 500K transactions/day (create/delete server, list servers, resize >>server, etc. - granted, some are more expensive than others) That >>works out to ~21K/hr but it won't be evenly distributed. To allow >>for peak, I would say something like 75K/hour or ~21/sec. >> >> Thoughts? >> >> Erik >> >> >> On 12/30/10 9:20 AM, "Pete Zaitcev" <zait...@redhat.com> wrote: >> >>> On Wed, 29 Dec 2010 19:27:09 +0000 >>> Erik Carlin <erik.car...@rackspace.com> wrote: >>> >>>> The 1M host limit still seems reasonable to me. [] >>> >>> In my opinion, such numbers are completely out of whack. Google's >>>Chubby article says that the busiest Chubby has 90,000 clients (not >>>hosts!) and the biggest datacenter has 10,000 systems. They found >>>such numbers pushing the border of unmanageable. Granted they did >>>not use virtualization, but we're talking the number of boxes in >>>both cases. >>> >>> So to reach 1M hosts in a Nova instance you have to have it manage >>> 100 datacenters. There are going to be calls for federation of Novas >>> long before this number is reached. >>> >>> Sustaining a high flap rate is a worthy goal and will have an >>> important practical impact. And having realistic sizing ideas is >>> going to help it. >>> >>> -- Pete >> >> >> >> Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail message (including any attached >>or embedded documents) is intended for the exclusive and confidential >>use of the individual or entity to which this message is addressed, >>and unless otherwise expressly indicated, is confidential and >>privileged information of Rackspace. >> Any dissemination, distribution or copying of the enclosed material >>is prohibited. >> If you receive this transmission in error, please notify us >>immediately by e-mail at ab...@rackspace.com, and delete the original >>message. >> Your cooperation is appreciated. >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~openstack >> Post to : openstack@lists.launchpad.net >> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~openstack >> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp > > Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail message (including any attached or embedded documents) is intended for the exclusive and confidential use of the individual or entity to which this message is addressed, and unless otherwise expressly indicated, is confidential and privileged information of Rackspace. Any dissemination, distribution or copying of the enclosed material is prohibited. If you receive this transmission in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail at ab...@rackspace.com, and delete the original message. Your cooperation is appreciated. _______________________________________________ Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~openstack Post to : openstack@lists.launchpad.net Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~openstack More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp _______________________________________________ Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~openstack Post to : openstack@lists.launchpad.net Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~openstack More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp
