Buat nyangkuters, masih ada harapan laahh... Paling enggak avg down, syukur2 untung. At least itulah pendapat research-nya TRIM
Result ▪ ADHI booked 9M08 revenue growth of 22.2% YoY, from Rp3.0tr to Rp3.7tr, on the back of new revenue contribution of Rp167.8bn from Adhi Oman LLC, 22.2% YoY growth in construction revenue to Rp3.3tr and 29.0% YoY growth in property sales to Rp69.0bn while EPC revenue experienced a decline by 29.7% YoY to Rp159.4bn. ▪ Nevertheless, significant decline in gross margin, from 10.5% in 9M07 to 7.5% in 9M08, has led 9M08 gross profit to fall by 13.1% YoY to Rp274.1bn. This, coupled with a 37.6% YoY decline in 9M08 JO profit to Rp18.1bn, caused 9M08 operating profit to plunge 27.9% YoY to Rp153.6bn with net profit slashed by 49.9% YoY to Rp52.2bn. ▪ Despite still weak YoY performance, on a QoQ basis, the company has shown good progress in its 3Q08 performance. Revenue grew by 43.5% QoQ to Rp1.7tr, operating profit surged by 71.8% QoQ to Rp82.8bn and net profit skyrocketed by 385.9% QoQ to Rp41.8bn. Stock Data ▪ Target Price: Rp565 ▪ P/E (x): 7.2 ▪ P/BV (x): 0.8 ▪ Div. Yield (%): 7.3 Comment ▪ Overall we rate 9M08 performance as better than expected. 9M08 operating and net profit outperformed our expectation as both, operating and net profit, have reached 77.3% and 82.3% of our FY08 target of Rp198.8bn and Rp63.4bn. These results are even better considering 9M08 revenue and gross profit only represent 68.3% and 68.2% of our FY08 estimate of Rp5.4tr and Rp402.0bn, respectively. ▪ Better-than-expected operating and net profit figures are attributed to: 1) streamlined operating expenses, which only accounts 60.6% of our FY08 estimate of Rp228.9bn, and 2) lower minority interests, which only accounts 20.3% of our FY08 estimate of Rp17.7bn. While we applaud 3Q08 performance, net profit is somewhat misleading given lower-than-expected minority interest is likely a result of losses booked by its subsidiaries. However, at the moment the above statement is only our quick analysis and we are awaiting clarification by ADHI on this issue. Our hypothesis is based on financial reports of Adhi Oman LLC (AOL), subsidiary in Middle East, which booked a loss in its 3Q08 earning. AOL posted 3Q08 gross loss of Rp7.5bn versus 2Q08 gross profit of Rp7.9bn on the back of 48.6% QoQ decline in 3Q08 revenue to Rp41.6bn and 27.7% QoQ slash in 3Q08 gross margin to -18.0%. ▪ We also applaud the balance sheet improvement in 9M08. A quick glance revealed that ADHI has improved its working capital management. In 9M08, net working capital days stand at 88days versus 120days in 9M07. The improvement came from a larger liability side, whereby trade payable and advances increased by 84.1% YoY and 266.4% YoY, respectively. ▪ We have a DCF TP of Rp565/share for the counter, implying a 121.6% upside potential and dividend yield of 7.3%. At the moment, ADHI is trading at an attractive FY08 P/E of 7.2x and P/BV of 0.8x. Given significant plunge in counter's share for the past few weeks, we upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry®
