YUP - kasus LTCM itu termasup bid Risk Mgt - yg kurang dapet mengelola down-side risk bgm kalo seandainya terjadi (C/L ?) - saya kira kurang ada hub langsung dg statistik itu.. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Pengamat Market Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 3:51 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK (Bukti keserakahan manusia)
Kebangkrutan LTCM hanyalah bukti sederhana dari keserakahan manusia... Ilmunya udah bener...Alasan masuk kemarket juga sudah bener...tapi orangnya yang mendadak jadi serakah. Harusnya kalau pada saat itu mereka tetap konsistes pada size yang wajar. Mereka gk akan bangkrut. Ada satu hal yang sudah mereka abaikan yaitu Risk Management. !!! Although success within the financial markets arises from immediate-short term turbulence, and the ability of fund managers to identify informational asymmetries, factors giving rise to the downfall of the fund were established prior to the 1997 East Asian financial crisis <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_East_Asian_financial_crisis> . However, in May and June 1998 returns from the fund were -6.42% and -10.14% respectively, reducing LTCM's capital by $461 million. This was further aggravated by the exit of Salomon Brothers from the arbitrage <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage> business in July 1998. Such losses were accentuated through the Russian Financial Crises <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Financial_Crises> in August and September 1998, when the Russian Government defaulted on their government bonds. Panicked investors sold Japanese and European bonds to buy U.S. treasury bonds. The profits that were supposed to occur as the value of these bonds converged became huge losses as the value of the bonds diverged. By the end of August, the fund had lost $1.85 billion in capital. As a result of these losses, LTCM had to liquidate a number of its positions at a highly unfavorable moment and suffer further losses. A good illustration of the consequences of these forced liquidations is given by Lowenstein (2000) [3] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management#cite_note-Lowenst ein-2> . He reports that LTCM established an arbitrage position in the dual-listed company <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-listed_company> (or "DLC") Royal Dutch Shell <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Dutch_Shell> in the summer of 1997, when Royal Dutch traded at an 8 to 10 percent premium relative to Shell. In total $2.3 billion was invested, half of which long in Shell and the other half short in Royal Dutch (Lowenstein, p. 99). LTCM was essentially betting that the share prices of Royal Dutch and Shell would converge. This may have happened in the long run, but due to its losses on other positions, LTCM had to unwind its position in Royal Dutch Shell. Lowenstein reports that the premium of Royal Dutch had increased to about 22 percent, which implies that LTCM incurred a large loss on this arbitrage strategy. According to Lowenstein (p. 234), LTCM lost $286 million in equity pairs trading and more than half of this loss is accounted for by the Royal Dutch Shell trade. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management --- On Mon, 9/8/08, SbudianaY <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: From: SbudianaY <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK To: "Obrolan Bandar" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Date: Monday, September 8, 2008, 10:09 PM Semoga benar2 Happy selalu sesuai email addressnya hehehe..... GBUs Always, SB Sent from my BlackBerry R wireless device _____ From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] com Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2008 07:52:07 +0000 To: <obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK Teduh sekali pak SBY, Akhir2 ini postingan para suhu menunjukan mereka tdk hanya advance in trading knowledge tapi juga memiliki spiritual intelligent yg mantap. Semoga bukan karena keadaan market spt sekarang. Jadi teringat pesan sahabat sy seorang Hare Krshna devotee di melbourne : "Since We are limited it will make our creation also limited, only by GOD causeless mercy everything we do becoming perfect" Rgds. Sent from my BlackBerryR wireless device from XL GPRS/EDGE/3G network _____ From: "SbudianaY" <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com.sg> Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2008 07:08:09 +0000 To: Obrolan Bandar<obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK Hehehe Pa Alfatih, memang hanya itulah kemampuan kita sbg manusia yg diciptakan NYA walau dulu mungkin krn msh trlalu di usia muda sdh cukup berhasil sehingga sy pernah merasa yg paling pintar dg mengira bahwa keberhasilan sy saat itu krn kepandaian sy, tapi begitu di kemudian hari pernah dpt cobaan yg begitu berat yg susah sy atasi se olah2 mendadak jadi bodoh, maka barulah sy sadari bahwa yg dulu itu jg adalah pemberian NYA dan sama sekali bukan krn kepintaran sy, maka krn kita tdk tau apa isinya Scenario YMK, maka Motto saya adalah "We only can do the Outmost Best we can and than leave the Rest to the Almighty GOD" krn hanya itulah yg se benar2nya kemampuan kita sebagai Ciptaan NYA. GBUs Always, SB Sent from my BlackBerry R wireless device _____ From: "M Alfatih" <alfatih.aati@ gmail.com> Date: Mon, 8 Sep 2008 06:07:10 +0700 To: <obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK Ada dua kubu, yang percaya sepenuhnya akan kemampuan manusia dan yang pasrah kepenuhnya ama nasib. Saya percaya bahwa kita harus berusaha semampu kita, bahkan kalau perlu lebih dari kemampuan kita (kita kan nggak tahu batas sebenarnya kemampuan kita?) Dan kuasa doa akan membimbing kita memilih yang tepat diantara berbagai peluang yang diberikanNya. Its more than statistics. baru setelah itu ikhlas dengan semua hasil yang diterima, karena itulah jatah yang diberikan YMK kepada kita, itulah Hok Kie TeIt kita. On Sun, Sep 7, 2008 at 6:46 PM, SbudianaY <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com.sg <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: Believe It Or Not, bahwa Kepintaran bukan segalanya dan tidak jadi jaminan sama sekali, sekalipun sy jg setuju bahwa lbh baik Pintar dp Bodoh, tapi lagi2 terbukti bahwa keberuntungan semua tetap tregantung Hok Kie alias Hok Kie Te It yg sdh ditentukan Dlm scenario YMK. SB Sent from my BlackBerry R wireless device -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> com Date: Sun, 7 Sep 2008 09:05:27 To: <obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups. com> Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK Statisticians, mathematicians, nobel winners juga manusia... Sent from my BlackBerryR powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: "hendrik_lwww" <hendrik_lwww@ yahoo.com <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Date: Sun, 07 Sep 2008 08:18:52 To: <obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups. com> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: HATI -HATI DENGAN STATISTIK untuk sekedar diketahui aja coba deh googling aja cari tentang LCTM LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT perusahaan ini didirikan oleh pemenang nobel matematika dan ekonomi mengelola 6 miliar dollar dana perusahaan in berisi ahli FISIKA,KOMPUTER, , MATEMATIKA, EKONOMI, sSTATISTIK,DLL POKONYA AHLI2NYA CES PLENG SEMUA DEH... yang dialami : DALAM 2 TAHUN BANGKRUT MENELAN KERUGIAN 6 MILIAR DOLAR THAT IS STATISTIK... .. JAS MERAH : JANGAN SEKALI - KALI MELUPAKAN SEJARAH ------------ --------- --------- ------ + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! 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