copied paste:
The high cost of production and the lack of new mining/smelting
projects in the pipeline have long been discussed as factors
supporting nickel's dramatic LME price drop over the past year. But, a
new Deutsche Bank quarterly commodities report suggests that the
substitution threat from nickel pig iron, especially in Asia, was "a
main driver of the nickel price crash" from $16.88/lb in 2007 to
$12.38 at mid-2008. Stronger second-half demand from Chinese specialty
steel mills and lack of new smelted nickel production are expected to
support an annual average of $13.40 this year, according to the bank's
report.
But the price outlooks for 2009 range from $14–15 for the bulls who
see a pickup in 2009 global stainless steelmaking to $11–12 from the
bears. They aren't convinced that a global economy pickup will occur
until 2010 so next year's stainless steelmaking will stay pretty
stable and there could be some new supply "to fill a persistent supply
deficit," says the Deutsche Bank report. The Santa Rita nickel project
in Brazil, said to become the third-largest open pit nickel mine in
the world, will be producing halfway through 2009, says the owner,
Australian producer Mirabela. However, production isn't scheduled
until 2010 for the Kennecott Eagle $300 million nickel mine in
Michigan, and BHP Billiton's $4 billion nickel project on Gag Island
off the western tip of Papua New Guinea still is in early development.
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