DB F, AK F, ML F... lengkap dah :D beliya di berapa sih mereka kok pake guyur
kiri?
--- On Wed, 9/3/08, y_dizz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
From: y_dizz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: BUMI (TP Rp7,680) - Deutsche Bank: Down but not
out
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, September 3, 2008, 6:15 AM
Btw, Pak James... Hari ini yang guyur BUMI bintangnya DB lho.
Nah lho... Nah lho...
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, James Liem <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote:
>
> Subject: Fw: BUMI (TP Rp7,680) - Deutsche Bank: Down but not out
>
>
> >
> > Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
> >
> > Bumi {Ticker: BUMI.JK, Closing Price: 5,300 IDR, Target Price:
7,680
> > IDR,
> > Recommendation: Buy}
> >
> > * Reiterate Buy on strong coal outlook
> >
> > Recent weakness in Bumi's stock price is mainly the result of
overall
> > negative sentiment on commodities following the softening of oil
price,
> > and has been exacerbated by negative news flow. However, we remain
> > upbeat that coal prices will continue to sustain owing to
persistent
> > supply constraints.
> > Bumi's valuation of 8x FY09E, therefore, presents a strong buying
> > opportunity, in our view.
> >
> > * We expect recent issues to have one-off impact at worst
> >
> > While recent issues (KPC issue, VAT, tax) may have significant
impact on
> > 2008F earnings and/or cash flow, we believe any impact they could
have
> > would be one-off. In the worst-case scenario, these issues would
knock
> > off no more than 4% from NPV based on our estimates; the implied
> > worst-case DCF valuation of about Rp7,290 is still about 30%
above the
> > current price.
> >
> > * Revise earnings to update cost and price assumptions
> >
> > We have revised our earnings by -30% for 2008F, mainly reflecting
higher
> > cash cost assumptions (fuel price and strip ratio) and lower
volume
> > assumption, while maintaining our ASP of US$80/ton. We expect a
higher
> > ASP in 2009F at US$102/ton to offset higher costs, resulting in a
+4%
> > revision to 2009F earnings.
> >
> > * Valuation remains attractive despite TP and earnings revisions
> >
> > We have cut our target price for Bumi by 20% to Rp7,680 (Vs
Rp9,800),
> > primarily reflecting our higher WACC assumption due to recent
revisions
> > of the country's risk-free rate and market risk premium
assumptions, and
> > our recent earnings revision. In spite of the revision, we believe
> > Bumi's valuation remains attractive, particularly in the context
of a
> > strong coal outlook. At the TP, Bumi trades at 11x 09PE, or a 25%
> > discount to the target PE of Chinese coal stocks. Risks include
higher
> > costs, lower output and regulatory risks.
> >
> >
> >
> > For more information, please click on the attached Document.
> >
> > CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this
> > electronic
> > transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is
intended
> > only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you
are not the
> > intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
distribution,
> > copying,
> > review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this
electronic
> > transmission or the information contained in it is strictly
prohibited. If
> > you have received this electronic transmission in error, please
> > immediately
> > contact the sender to arrange for the return of the original
documents.
> >
> ************ ***
> CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this
electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally
privileged. It is intended only for the person or entity to which it
is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby
notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission,
dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the
information contained in it is strictly prohibited. If you have
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contact the sender to arrange for the return of the original
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>
