Prediksi analyst ML cukup optimis jg yah? RM 4000 untuk tahun 2009. Thanks buat beritanya Pak :) saya kemarin dapet berita lain yg est. nya pesimis RM 2500 tahun 2009. Tp menurut saya mau RM 2500 atau RM 2300. Kinerja emiten pasti tetep lebih bagus dari 2007 dan tahun2 berikutnya karena output & efisiensi jg meningkat. Tp kalo bener bs RM 4000 lbh bagus, hihihihi... (masih sabar nunggu lagi SGRO Rp 2000 ~kalo dikasih)
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/8/12/business/20080812113056&sec=business Tuesday August 12, 2008 MYT 3:34:27 PM CPO price forecast maintained at RM2,500 KUALA LUMPUR: Aseambankers Equity Research is maintaining its average crude palm oil (CPO) price outlook of RM2,500 per tonne next year and its expectations for 2008 at RM3,000. In a report released on Tuesday, it said CPO prices had averaged RM3,460 per tonne year-to-date and it was maintaining its view that CPO prices were likely to peak this year and trade at more sustainable levels in 2009. "Further, the present domestic political landscape is also reducing the attractiveness of ringgit-related investments like CPO, capping its upside potential," it said. Aseambankers Research said it was reviewing its plantation sector call after the recent sell-down in plantation stocks. "Battered large caps like KL Kepong and Asiatic are good long term bets but small caps could be sidelined should the plantation sector return to favour in the near term. "A risk to our view is the continuous unwinding of speculative positions by hedge funds and commodity funds that could temporarily push down prices of commodity like crude oil and soy oil which, in turn, places downside pressure on CPO price and plantation stocks below their fundamental values," it said. The research house said Malaysia's July CPO inventory level closed at 1.98 million tonnes, below the historic 2.04 million tonne mark in June. It said the inventory level was below its expectations. The factors for the falling inventory level were because of the export growth to 1.4 million tonnes (25.2% on-month, 26.4% on-year) while production rose only 6.2% on-month to 1.56 million tonnes (up 15.0% on-year). It said the surge in exports was due to higher demand from China, which saw July's export at 417,907 tonnes (up 78% on-month or an increase of 182,957 tonnes). On the inventory for August, it said Malaysia's inventory could range between 1.98 million to 2.07 million tonnes. "At 1.98m tonnes, we maintain our view that CPO inventories remain adequate. Entering the high production season, inventory levels could re-challenge June's 2.04 million tonne record high sometime between August and October," it said. Aseambankers said in the medium term, Indonesia's mass planting programme, which averaged 319,000 ha per annum from 2001-06 should reach full maturity over the next two years and result in a surge in CPO production fuelling further downward pressure on CPO prices next year. On 8/13/08, Hendra Susanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > ini beritanya pak.. bentar lagi masa panen CPO berakhir, kemungkinannya > setelah panen selesai, harga CPO baru mulai menanjak kembali... > > > > *CPO* > USDA's forecast of soybean output of 80.8mt in Oct-Nov harvest is slightly > below consensus' 81.9mt. The est' indicates that supply will remain tight > till fall 2009 and inventory will not recover above the 2.5-weeks level > (historical avg of 8-weeks). In addition, the flood in mid-West in June > delayed soybean planting by 2-4 weeks, which may expose soybean to frost > risk and potential damage to the crop.* Jeffrey Ng believes the worst is > over and agriculture prices may rebound to their fundamental levels*. He > expects the near-term CPO trading range at RM3,200-3,400/mt for the rest of > 2008, indicating an upside from here. He remains comfortable with his 2009 > CPO target of RM4,000/mt as the increased supply is insufficient to ease the > current balance tightness. > > *Market Talks* > ** BMRI* to provide Rp4tn loan to SMGR to finance the cement company's > capex. SMGR has cancelled plan to issue US$300-500mn bonds citing to > volatile market. (Bisnis Indonesia ) > > ** BBCA raised* mortgage rate by 100bps to reach 12.5%, following central > bank's rate hike. BCA believes that the increase will not impact its target > of channeling Rp20tn of loan in consumer sector. (Bisnis Indonesia ) > > ** PGAS:* Rumor section in Investor Daily reported that Min. for State-Owned > Enterprises approved divestment of 4.5% of PGAS' share by Aug 2008. It's > reported that potential buyer for the shares is Mittal Group. (Investor > Daily) > > ** ANTM* to use electricity supply from Malaysia for its aluminum plant, a > JV with Russia 's Rusal in West Kalimantan . Malaysia company plans to build > hydro power plant will supply electricity for US$2.5 cent per kWH, much > lower than US$4.5 cent per kWH from domestic plant. The project will require > 1,300 MW of electricity supply. (detikfinance.com) > > ** **MEDC* is considering to pay special dividend of U$50mn or Rp 140/shr > (3.4% div yield) after the divestment of its 7 non-core assets by the end of > this year. Among the assets are 15% stake in Rimau, 16.7% Kakap, 24% > Lematang, 70% Langsa, 30% Bawean, ownership in Jeruk and Blok Tuban. MEDC > plans to invest U$3bn to set up ethanol plant in Lampung, expand enhanced > oil recovery projects in Rimau, S.Sumatra, and build a power plants in > Sarulla, tarutung, N.Sumatra. Meanwhile, investment in Area 47, Libya could > reach U$600mn. > > > > *Santy Tandiana* > Merrill Lynch Indonesia > Dir: 6221-515 8997 > Mob: 62-8151-4355-954 > > 2008/8/13 Aris Sanjaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >> mungkin belum confirm rebound, tp harga CPO sepertinya nggak bakal drop >> jauh dari harga sekarang. setidaknya ini bounce back pertama setelah 6 >> hari >> berturut2 CPO minus gede2 an. Rebound di support 1 RM 2550, hehehe... >> saya collect terus saham agri, BOW buat investasi, i won't sell until min >> ~5 years >> >> Btw. Pak Hendra, berita analyst ML predict CPO rebound ke RM 3000 itu bs >> didapatkan dimana? >> >> >> On 8/13/08, Hendra Susanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> >>> bacanya susah mbah.. mending di : >>> >>> http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodities/oilseeds#palm >>> >>> CPO da naik 80 point.. mgk gara2 analyst ML predict CPO bakal rebound ke >>> 3000 .. >>> >>> >>> >>> On Wed, Aug 13, 2008 at 2:48 PM, jsx_consultant < >>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> >>>> Coba liat: >>>> >>>> www.mdex.com.my/website/bm/market_information/prices/derivatives.jsp >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >
