(Dow Jones)--Renowned investor Jim Rogers thinks it's laughable that some analysts are suggesting the bull market in commodities may be over, but it's nothing he hasn't heard before in his nearly 40 years in the business. "People have been telling me for seven years that the bull market in commodities is over, practically every time we have a correction, and I suspect they'll be saying it for at least another seven years. The bull market is not over yet - it's had a big correction but it's not over yet," Rogers told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone. Asked if going long commodities is a wise investment at this stage, Rogers replied: "If you're talking about today, I don't know. But if you're talking about over the next decade, yes. "The price of many commodities is going to be much higher in 10 years than it is today," he predicted. Rogers and investor George Soros in 1970 founded the Quantum Fund, which gained over 3000% in the following 10 years during which time the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose just 47%. Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index in 1998. He has authored several investment books over the years, including 2004's "Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market." Despite suggestions the recent decline in crude oil may spell an end to the commodity run-up, Rogers remains bullish on the sector for the next decade as the world's population swells, and demand for food and energy strengthens while production likely remains limited. Since reaching its highs of $147.90 a barrel on July 11, September crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of Wednesday's $126.77 close has lost 14% of its value, which has many commodity traders spooked. But there is very little new production coming on stream, with the exception of a major offshore find in Brazil, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to global demand. Even the "wildest bulls" say the Brazil find would add the equivalent of about nine months of supply to the marketplace, Rogers said. The world uses 86 million barrels of oil every day. "The bull market in oil started in 1999...and in the last nine years the oil market has gone down over 40% three times. Was that the end of the bull market?" he asked rhetorically. "Come on, you're talking to people who don't have a clue about the markets," Rogers said. He contends that limited supplies and strengthening demand will continue to support the oil market in the long term. "Every oil country in the world has declining reserves, and nearly every oil company has declining reserves. Just ask these people where the oil is. "Please tell me where all the supply is coming from that's going to end the bull market," Rogers said. Gold futures have also declined in recent weeks, pressured by the drop in oil, speculative selling and a U.S. dollar showing signs of strengthening. September gold hit a 4 1/2-week low Wednesday. In 1976, gold futures hit a low of $101.00 an ounce on the monthly continuation chart and then in 1979-80 shot up approximately eight-fold to reach a high of $875.00, according to a monthly continuation chart. The market subsequently declined 66% over the next two years, bottoming out at $295.00, leading many analysts to declare the surge in gold was finished. "Everybody said, 'Well, the bull market is over; that was just a fad.' They called it a fad in those days," said Rogers. Fast-forward to March 2008 and gold futures reached a historic high of $1,017.50. Prices have fallen since and on Wednesday of this week September closed at $902.90, an 11% decline but nothing to throw in the towel over, he argued. Rogers is also bullish on grain commodities for the next 10 years, citing the decline in land devoted to wheat production over the last 31 years and the lowest ratio of food stocks to consumption in at least 50 to 60 years. Wheat harvested area in the U.S. has declined 28 million acres since its peak in 1981, as wheat lost its competitiveness to crops such as corn and soybeans. The long-term outlook for U.S. wheat points to a slightly smaller planted area, rather than expansion, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. The world's population is expected to grow by one-third over the next 30 years with more than 95% of the increase concentrated in developing countries, where pressure on land and water are already intense, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said. The world's cereal grain stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise slightly to 19.5% in 2008-09, up from a 30-year low opening level, the FAO said. Global coarse grain stocks-to-use are forecast to fall to a new low in 2008-09 of 13.5%, about one percentage point below the previous low set in 2007-08, due mainly to the decline in U.S. production. "We do know that the world has been consuming more food than it's produced for at least the last seven years. And we do know we're burning a lot of our agricultural products in our fuel tanks now," said Rogers, a development he argues is "ludicrous" given the relative inefficiency of converting grain to ethanol versus other feedstocks like sugarcane. Besides being inefficient, using feed grain for energy drives up demand, which in turn raises prices and creates hardship for livestock producers. "It's a totally absurd solution," said Rogers. Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com Send instant messages to your online friends http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
