Still shining Dominic Whiting
Monday, July 28, 2008 Where can you get prime land, thousands of homes and some shopping malls virtually for free? Indonesia, it seems. While global investors shirk at anything property-related after the US subprime mortgage meltdown, Indonesian developers are possibly Asia's best kept secret, because brisk home sales contradict share prices that reflect a market crash. Property stocks in Southeast Asia's largest economy are so cheap they are offering their property for next to nothing, said CLSA analyst Daniel Oen. Ciputra Development, whose cash almost equals its market capitalisation, is gifting investors stakes in three retail- hotel complexes, a central Jakarta commercial development and housing projects, Oen calculates. Using his model, which takes market capitalization, deducts cash and a value for recurring income, Summarecon Agung is offering its land bank to stock investors at a 70 percent discount to its own selling price. "No question, it's a bargain right now," Oen said. Owning stocks rather than land involves taking on the risk of a company going bust. But although the Indonesia property stock index has fallen 33 percent this year because of rising inflation and interest rates, developers are prospering. Ciputra Development more than doubled its home presales in the first half of this year and rival Bakrieland Development notched up 76 percent growth. Housing booms are turning to slowdowns as rising interest rates bite in India, Singapore and Hong Kong. China is targeting property to cool its economy, and inflation and high financing costs have cast a pall over Asia's property trusts. But in Indonesia, no stranger to high inflation and interest rates, Jakarta home prices are up around 15 percent from a year ago, allowing developers to nudge margins up despite a similar rise in land and construction costs. And while interest rates are rising, the introduction of fixed rate mortgages is proving popular with home buyers. At 10.25 percent, they seem expensive internationally but are a bargain compared with the 18 percent going rate a couple of years ago. Ciptra Development and Bakrieland are trading at 66 percent and 54 percent discounts to forecast 2008 net asset value, compared to a 26 percent average discount in the rest of Asia, where housing markets are struggling. But fund managers are yet to take the plunge, because low trade volumes for Indonesian property stocks means it is difficult for them to invest nimbly. Only around US$1 million (HK$7.8 million) worth of Ciptra Development shares change hands each day, and the most liquid stock is Bakrieland, with around US$10 million of daily volume. "It's not a very meaningful part of our universe," said Frankie Lee, property fund manager at Henderson Global Investments in Singapore. Housing sales growth will probably weaken in coming months because of rising interest rates, according to Credit Suisse analyst Teddy Oetomo, but a complete market freeze is unlikely because the resource-rich economy is in decent shape. Most developers have learned from a torrid time with inflation in 2005, and have signed "price-volume" contracts with cement and steel suppliers, capping cost rises to 2-3 percent this year, compared to the 7-8 percent hikes in 2005. "The market has punished stocks, expecting a worst case scenario, as in 2005," Oetomo said. "But things aren't as bad as 2005. Some of the money made from the commodities boom is being invested in Jakarta and Surabaya property." REUTERS http://thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp? we_cat=16&art_id=69172&sid=19934092&con_type=1&d_str=20080728&fc=1 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Juragan Cumi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Yang ditungguin Elaine dah mau terjadi: orang kehilangan akal sehat > dan melakukan hal bodoh. > > Jadi kalem aja. Ini permainan kesabaran. Siapa tahu kalo ntar jadinya > malah Elaine yang melakukan hal bodoh karena dah dimarahin investornya > lagi. > > > > On 7/30/08, Aria Bela Nusa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > HOLD 'aja-lah - mudah2an itu saham2 Bakrie-nya suatu saat menjadi berjaya2 > > kembali, saham2 jawara spt yl. > > > > Happy Chuan, > > > > Aria > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan- [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > On Behalf Of Paulus Tangke Allo > > Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2008 11:16 PM > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ELTY nya ELaine NYUNGSEP !? BANKRUPT > > INVESTOR > > > > kalau gak salah, beberapa waktu yang lalu, Pak Alfatih pernah post > > mengenai historical data JSX, intinya ada rentang waktu tertentu > > dimana buy and hold cocok utk diterapkan namun ada juga rentang waktu > > dimana buy and hold justru bikin rugi (lebih pas utk trading). > > > > tahun ini kalau tidak salah rentang waktu yg cocok utk trading, di > > tahun2 ke depan, bukan tidak mungkin sejarah terulang kembali dimana > > terdapat rentang waktu yang pas utk menerapkan buy and hold. > > > > --pta > > > > On 7/29/08, Frendy <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > <mailto:wildwildwest84%40gmail.com> > wrote: > >> > >> > >> hehe...I don't trade as well....but INVEST ? > >> I've already lost almost 50 % because of 1 year investing..... > >> 2007 HELL INVESTING....am I STUPID INVESTOR ? hahahaha.... > >> how many years should i WAIT again ? need advice plz.... > >> investing is NOT only about 1 year...but 5 years ? really ? > >> from now on...can investing make profit in 3 - 5 years ? > >> or.....investing will make me SUFFER and BANKRUPT in next 5 years ? > >> say a company with a GOOD FUNDAMENTAL.... > >> ELTY ? is it GOOD or BAD or SUPER BAD ? > >> ANTM ? F*CK H*LL BAD ? > >> > >> Which ONE that have a F*CK & S*CK FUNDAMENTAL ? > >> > >> compare to LCGP, SIPD, POLY ? > >> my bet....those F*CKIN STOCKS above will give MORE money if we > >> invest from now on....compare to F*CK ELTY ANTM... > > > > > > > -- > Salam, > Sudahkah anda makan cumi hari ini? >
