Lampiran UNTR HEAX di upload di file section..
Selamat pagi UNTR target price 12750 ...HExa 3900 cing ............. ah oentoeng aku udah beli doea doea nya kemarin deh.. trader ah minggir deh ente TA nya jelek khan masikan. Mahu turun dulu UNTR ya biarin aje.. Jangan ketinggalan kereta lag inpestor.. setelah RI akan bagus lagi krn issue psikologisnya udah larut. RI bukan saham = 7500 lho.. kata orang pinter ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Tue, Jul 22, 2008 at 3:41 AM Subject: Fwd: Initiation report on heavy equipment sector ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, Jul 21, 2008 at 8:58 PM Subject: Initiation report on heavy equipment sector Dear all please find attached our initiation report on Indonesian heavy equipment sector : *Digging up profit in strong demand * *Initiating coverage of heavy equipment sector : * We initiate coverage on the Indonesian heavy equipment sector with overweight rating and assign Buy rating on stocks within the sector; United Tractors (UNTR) and Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA), on their strong earnings outlook. Based on DCF valuation we have 12-month target price of Rp12,750 (adj. to rights issue) for UNTR and Rp3,900 for HEXA. We believe heavy equipment will play an important role in the robust commodities production activities and infrastructure development in Indonesia. *Strong heavy equipment demand to continue* UNTR and HEXA have seen an acceleration of heavy equipment sales driven by the strong demand from mining, plantation, and forestry and construction sector. Their sales increased by 42% to 1,987 units (UNTR) and 2.5 times to 950 units (HEXA) in 5M08 compared to the same period a year earlier. We believe the expectation of strong commodity prices driving higher commodity (coal, pulp, CPO) production activities and robust infrastructure development will further fuel equipment demand over the next couple of years. The global demand is expected to see a 12-20 months sales backlog on commodities boom, which will result in a shortage of heavy equipment globally. *Favorable interest rate should support demand* Although we expect the benchmark interest rate to rise by 100 bps to 9.75% by end of this year on higher inflation risk, we consider it is still supportive of heavy equipment industry. As around 60% customers use lease financing to purchase heavy equipments, the favorable interest rate and greater liquidity in the banking system should help enhance equipment demand. Historical data shows that interest rate is highly sensitive to equipment demand. *Risks to our call * The key risks to the Indonesian heavy equipment industry are (1) significant correction in commodities price ; 2) higher-than-expected increase in interest rate 3) significant increase in oil price 4) delay in implementation of the infrastructure developments in Indonesia and 5) lower-than-expected equipment supply.
