Pak Hendra,
PTBA-nya kok tdk bisa dibuka? Apakah bisa dikirim dlm bentuk PDF? Regards, ________________________________ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Hendra Susanto Sent: Friday, 6 June 2008 2:39 PM To: Undisclosed recipients Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ML INDO Up PxT: PTBA Rp20,169 & BUMI Rp10,000 Cut PxT: INCO & ANTM (Sales Note 6 June 08 Last call utk penumpang coal, bentar lagi bakal lepas landas. Pesawat kami sudah penuh penumpang BUMI di kepala 7xxx dan PTBA di kepala 13xxx dan sebentar lagi akan take off. This is kapten ML speaking :)) Upgrades: PTBA PxT Rp20,169, BUMI PxT Rp10,000. Cut PxT: INCO to Rp8,600 (Buy), ANTM Rp2,176 Commodity: upgrade coal prices Vicky Binns and mining team revised their medium-long term commodity price est': i) Coal price was raised by 23% to US$135/t (2009), 18% to US$100/t (2010), and 11% to US$80/t (2011), while retaining 2008 at U$135 and long-term, ii) Nickel price was cut by 20% to US$11.7/lb for 2008, 2% to US$12.8 for 2009, and 9% to US$10.0 for 2010. We now prefer coal to metal stocks. The impact to Indo stocks: Daisy raised PTBA PxT by 14% to Rp20,169, and reinstated coverage on BUMI with Buy PxT Rp10,000. She cut earnings and NPV for INCO and ANTM. Daisy's top pick in order of preference: PTBA, BUMI, INCO. PTBA: raised PxT to Rp20,169 Daisy raised PxT by 14% to Rp20,169 and net profit by 21-26% for 2009-2011. Exports accounts for ~46% of PTBA's output in 2008, and we see this rising to 57% by 2010. With no restriction on export and no ceiling on domestic price, domestic ASP should also improve, but Daisy leaves that as upside. She also feels market still undermine PTBA's ability to ramp-up production, and there is still misplaced belief that export prices are always higher than domestic prices. Note that recent events have slowly changed these misplaced views: Establishment of a railway JV with PTKA was approved on 29 May, which will allow PTBA to invest directly in railway expansion. Also, PLN has surprised the market by raising its contract price in the middle of the year, a sign of domestic prices catching up with export. Other catalysts: i) arrival of 100 wagons in July-Aug, ii) the US$49mn cash injection by PTBA to the railway JV in Aug '08, and iii)construction of railway JV with the Chinese in 1Q08. Trades at 14x '08 PE with 207% EPSg. <<PTBA_export prices seen higher for longer.pdf>> BUMI: Value to be unlocked as a proxy Upgrade to Buy PxT Rp 10,000, a 20% premium to our end 08 DCF. Main changes: i) new coal price assumption and ii) fact that BUMI commands $7 export pricing thanks to its efficient logistics - which means reliable delivery for customer. Bumi is the world's second-largest thermal coal exporter and a 10% output shortfall could well cause global export supply deficit to widen by 70%. Such influence gives it a pricing power unmatched by any coal company in the region. We deem Bumi a reasonably-valued proxy for the robust coal price, given its dominance in global seaborne export, high export exposure and superior infrastructure. We now project 20% higher 2009-10E NPAT on higher coal price assumptions. In anticipation of rising commodity prices, we are likely to see equity prices overshoot NPVs. http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=SBucuTmVYGDltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D <http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=SBucuTmVYGDltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D> INCO: cut PxT to Rp8,600 Maintain Buy but lower PxT by 16% to Rp8,600 and earnings by 32%, 12%, 16% for 2008-10. INCO still remains as an attractive dividend play, offering 12% div yield on 9% FCF yield. Next div date is in Oct. Not to forget PT Inco is also the cheapest nickel company among our coverage. PT Inco uses hydropower for most of its power generation, and is constantly improving its cost-reduction initiatives. Our bullish view on nickel has been toned down as we see no clear demand drivers to support nickel price; Robust trade from Europe's stainless steel producers is insufficient to draw down LME's high inventories, China's mills are set to cut collective output and the US mills remain deathly quiet. http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=HOfAfKH7QyjltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D <http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=HOfAfKH7QyjltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D> ANTM: our least preferred With tepid nickel price, Daisy sees limited catalysts for ANTM to re-rate, and maintain Underperform rating. She slashed net profit by 23-9% for 2008-10 and YE08 NPV by 12% to Rp2,176. Daisy also expects cash cost to rise to US$7.5/lb by May 08, vs U$6.2 in 1Q08, given it is fully dependent on diesel power. Her ferronickel cash cost est for FY08 is only US$4.9/lb. ANTM's nickel ore business (10% of revenue) to China is also under threat as nickel pig iron cut back on production. Valuation is also expensive, at 52% premium to its base case NPV of Rp2,176.. DCF upside may exist from acquiring Herald, assuming its bid stays at A$2..60-2.65, but impact would be small relative to market cap. http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=5MLBDi2kkRvltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D <http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=5MLBDi2kkRvltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D> Market Talks: * BI raised rate by 25 bps to 8.50% yesterday (vs consensus +50bps) to counter inflation. We expect the impact from recent 29% domestic fuel price hike to linger over the next few months, hence we see CPI heading to ~12%. We expect further 75-175bps rate hike for YE08. * BMRI to receive Rp200bn from auction of assets of PT Suba Indah that has been used as collateral for its Rp773.88bn NPL. The assets are plants, land, machinery, and equipments. ( Bisnis Indonesia ) * UNTR finalizing due diligence for the US$80mn purchase of a coal mining company. The company is said to have 10-15mn ton of reserve in Kalimantan . (BIsnis Indonesia ) * MEDC to announce winner for acquisition of 80.57% shares of APEX next week. (Investor Daily ) Santy Tandiana Merrill Lynch Indonesia Dir: 6221-515 8997 Mob: 62-8151-4355-954 Important notice Although this report may contain extracts from or summaries of Merrill Lynch research or morning call notes, it does not in itself constitute Merrill Lynch research and has not been compiled or approved by our Research Department. Any mention of individual analysts by name is purely for reference purposes and should not be taken to imply that the analyst concerned has read or approved this report. Reports can be found at www.mlx.ml.com ________________________________ This message w/attachments (message) may be privileged, confidential or proprietary, and if you are not an intended recipient, please notify the sender, do not use or share it and delete it. 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