IISI Short Range Outlook14 Apr 2008
St Petersburg - The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) forecasts
2008 will still be another strong year for the steel industry with apparent
steel use rising from 1,202 million metric tons (mmt) in 2007 to 1,282 mmt in
2008, an increase of 6.7%. New projections for 2009 suggest a global growth
rate of 6.3%.
The IISI Executive Committee reviewed the forecasts at its meeting in St
Petersburg. Commenting on the forecasts, Ku-Taek Lee, IISI Chairman said: The
underlying assumption behind this forecast is that although some weakening in
the US and EU economies is expected, demand for steel will remain healthy
thanks in part to the emerging markets which will maintain their own dynamism.
The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries will again be leading
the growth with an expected increase of 11.1% for 2008 and 10.3% for 2009.
However, as steel demand growth increases in other emerging countries, the
large gap in growth rate - that we have come to expect in recent times -
between BRIC countries and the rest of the world (ROW) will narrow.
China apparent steel use is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2008 and 10.0% in
2009, accounting for 35% of the world total in 2008. This is expected to reach
36.7% of world total by 2009. For India, forecasts for apparent steel use point
to an increase of 8.9% in 2008 and 12.1% in 2009.
Growth in the Russian market is forecasted to remain strong with 10.2% for
2008 and 11.2% for 2009, led mainly by the energy and construction sectors.
Apparent steel use in Brazil is expected to increase by 10.3% for 2008 and 8.9%
for 2009, reflecting strong growth in the automotive, construction and
engineering sectors.
In the EU (27), the growth in steel demand is predicted to continue at a more
modest pace, following 2007 adjustments in inventory positions, leading to
growth of 1.6% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009.
2007 apparent steel use in the NAFTA region showed negative growth of -9.1%
due to the slowing economy, inventory liquidation and decreased imports. 2008
will show a more stable position despite the weak uncertain economy leading to
a positive growth forecast of 1.9% and 1.0% for 2009.
Table 1: Apparent steel use
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2007-2009) in mmt
Regions 2007 2008 2009 % 06/07 % 07/08 %
08/09 EU (27) 192.2
195.3
199.8
3.4
1.6
2.3
Other Europe 31.2
33.1
35.3
9.4
6.0
6.7
CIS 55.5
60.5
66.3
13.7
8.9
9.6
NAFTA 141.5
144.2
145.6
-9.1
1.9
1.0
Central and South America 41.0
44.6
47.7
13.7
8.9
7.0
Africa 25.3
26.8
28.4
8.5
5.9
5.9
Middle East 44.3
49.2
53.6
12.7
11.1
9.0
Asia and Oceania 670.6
728.3
786.5
10.0
8.6
8.0
World 1201.6
1282.1
1363.3
6.6
6.7
6.3
BRIC 520.9
578.5
637.8
13.1
11.1
10.3
World (excl. NAFTA) 1060.1
1137.9
1217.7
9.1
7.3
7.0
World (excl. China) 793.3
827.0
862.7
3.6
4.3
4.3
World (excl. BRIC) 680.7
703.5
725.4
2.2
3.4
3.1
# Ends #
Notes to Editors:
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) is one of the largest and
most dynamic industry associations in the world. IISI represents approximately
180 steel producers (including 19 of the world's 20 largest steel companies),
national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research
institutes. IISI members produce around 75% of the world's steel (excluding
China) and the growing membership in China now accounts for over 20% of Chinese
production.
The projections forecast by IISI consider both real and apparent steel use.
Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the marketplace from the
steel producers as well as from importers. This differs from real steel use,
which takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
The Medium Term Forecast will be issued in July 2008.
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