liat grafik di link websitenya aja pak.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "VIVID VIDI VICI" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > pusing juga bacanya... koq sama ama perkiraan pak oentoeng ya? klo gold > memang sudah di puncaknya berarti inflasi juga di puncak juga dong... > dollar juga sudah di bottom.. dan amerika akan baik2 saja > > 2008/3/14, Kidod25 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > MAYAN NIH BUAT PETUNJUK, KALAU MAU BELI GOLD TERLAMBAT!!! > > > > http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg040805.html > > > > Gold & Historical Norm > > > > Eric Hommelberg > > > > Gold & Historical Norm is Chapter I of the Gold Drivers Report and > > analyses Gold against its own historical norm. This is important > > since many people argue that Gold is at an historic high these days > > and therefore bound to fall. Jeff Christian of the CPM group said on > > ROB TV late March : > > > > Gold prices are at an historic high and will likely come down. END, > > > > OK fair enough, but an historic high compared to what ? To Gold > > itself ? To Oil ? The CRB index ? The Dow Jones ? Please take peek at > > the following charts and see if you share Mr. Christian's view or > > not ! > > > > DOW/GOLD ratio > > Gold vs its own long term average > > Gold/Oil Ratio > > Gold vs CRB > > Gold vs Inflation rate > > DOW/GOLD Ratio > > > > When I first wrote about the DOW/GOLD ratio two years ago I started > > off by saying : > > > > Looking for a tool to predict future POG movements ? A tool which is > > extremely easy to use ? A tool which has proven to be extremely > > useful in the past ? A tool well respected by many veteran market > > analysts ? > > > > Of course when I say 'easy to predict future POG movements' I'm not > > talking about one year projections, not even two year projections. > > No, by saying predicting future movements I mean average up or down > > for at least a decade. Indeed, the DOW/GOLD ratio has proven to be an > > accurate tool when it comes to identify major turnarounds in stocks > > and gold. Please take peek at the chart below and see yourself : > > > > Again, the DOW/GOLD chart is a powerful tool in order to determine > > major turnarounds. It's simple, when the DOW/GOLD chart tops you buy > > gold, when the DOW/GOLD chart bottoms you buy equities. Once you've > > established your position you can ride the wave up or down for at > > least a decade. The DOW/GOLD chart flashed a 'buy' for Gold again in > > the year 2000 and indeed 5 years later Gold is already 66% off its > > lows since then. Well, if it were all that simple why don't we hear > > that much about it ? > > > > Well, as said before the DOW/GOLD chart isn't useful at all in order > > to predict yearly price movements. It could very well be that next > > year will show a higher reading than this year instead of an expected > > lower reading thereby losing confidence as being a reliable > > indicator. Unfortunately that's the same analogy as denying that > > higher temperatures will arrive in summer based on a single day > > temperature drop in spring. The problem is that the DOW/GOLD cycle > > has a wave length that's so big that we humans have a hard time to > > figure out where to position ourselves into this cycle. > > > > Nevertheless many veteran analysts such as Richard Russel and John > > Hattaway do refer to this cycle. Richard Russel often said that he > > wouldn't be surprised to see Gold crossing the Dow at 3000 thereby > > suggesting a new bottom for the DOW/GOLD ratio at one. Indeed history > > does suggest that the DOW/GOLD ratio bottoms periodically in the 1 - > > 5 range. The Dow/Gold ratio topped in 2000 far above 40 and is > > heading down now (currently at 23.5). If the DOW/GOLD ratio can live > > up to its expectations than we can expect a new DOW/GOLD bottom > > within this decade or shortly thereafter. > > > > The bottom line is that the current reading of 23.5 is nowhere near > > an historic high for Gold. To trade at an historic high today Gold > > should be trading above $2.000 at least (assumed bottom of 5) > > > > Gold vs Its Own Long Term Average > > > > When an expert claims that Gold is trading at an historic high these > > days at $425 you would probably think that gold never traded above > > $500. Well, for the first 70 years of last century Gold was dull > > indeed and never traded above 40$ / ounce. But as we know, that was > > all about a fixed Gold price by government decree. When Nixon closed > > the gold window in 1971 gold could finally crawl back to its natural > > equilibrium. Therefore I think it's fair enough to take 1970 as a > > reference point from where on we should calculate Gold's long term > > average. In order to do so we should re-calculate the gold prices > > with 2005 dollars (inflation adjusted) and check out if Gold is at an > > historic high indeed or not. > > > > See chart below and judge yourself : > > > > As you can see Gold is trading nowhere near an historic high > > according to its own long term average. In order to do so, Gold > > should be trading at least above $1500. > > > > Gold/Oil Ratio > > > > The Gold Oil ratio is at an extreme 35 year low these days. Such > > extremes won't stay there for a long period of time. So what gives ? > > Lower Oil prices or Gold catching up ? Since higher Oil prices are > > permanent it seems to me the latter. The Gold/Oil chart says it all. > > > > The fact that higher Oil prices are permanent is all about PEAK- OIL. > > We're facing flattening production curves while demand is on the > > rise. PEAK-OIL could very well arrive this year according to Prof. > > Kenneth Deffeyes, author of 'Beyond Oil - the View From Hubberts Peak- > > '. PEAK-OIL will be described in detail in upcoming chapter > > VIII 'Gold & Oil'. So if Oil prices won't come down and Gold has to > > catch up to its historical gold/oil average it should be trading at $ > > 866 these days. So a current reading of the Gold/Oil ratio at 7.3 > > doesn't reflect an historic high for Gold in any way ! > > > > To trade at an historic average Gold should be trading at $866 these > > days and to trade near historic highs Gold should be trading above > > $1500. > > > > Gold vs CRB > > > > We're witnessing the most powerful bull move in commodities these > > days since the seventies. According to the legendary Jimmy Rogers (co- > > founder of the Quantum Fund) this marks only the beginning. Jimmy > > Rogers says : > > > > The next bull market is here. It's not in stocks. It's not in bonds. > > It's in commodities - and some smart investors will be riding that > > bull to record returns in the next decade. > > > > Of course you can bet against Jimmy Rogers but please remember that > > Jimmy Rogers retired himself at the age of 37 and that was certainly > > not due to lack of success. He puts his money where his mouth is and > > started his own commodities index fund (with more than $200 million > > invested) and guess what ? It's the single-best performing index fund > > in the world in any asset class. > > > > If future history proves Jimmy Rogers to be right, what could that > > mean for Gold coming years ? How do commodities interact with Gold ? > > > > The chart below shows a strong correlation between rising commodities > > prices and rising gold prices. > > > > Again, when you wonder if Gold is trading at an historic high these > > days you certainly won't get confirmation from the GOLD-CRB chart. To > > trade at an historic high Gold should be trading above $700. > > > > Gold vs Inflation Rate > > > > Many people argue that rising interest rates are the death for Gold > > since rising rates would make the dollar more attractive so it will > > rise. Gold will therefore go down since there is a strong inverse > > correlation between Gold and the US$. Although there is a strong > > inverse correlation between the dollar and Gold indeed the thing is > > that current rising inflation rates are a result of a dropping > > dollar. Rising interest rates won't cure the Inflation pain as long > > as the FED stays behind the Inflation curve (see chapter III 'Gold & > > Inflation'). So what does history suggests about rising Inflation > > rates and Gold ? See graph below : > > > > As you can see higher inflation rates are extremely Gold friendly. > > > > OK you'll say, a strong correlation between Gold and Inflation, but > > according to our government there is no inflation so forget about > > higher Gold prices. Right ! The government says there is no > > inflation. The thing is that inflation is picking up steam but the > > government just doesn't report it, see chapter III 'Gold & > > Inflation'. Just to give you an idea what future Inflation figures > > could be see chart below : > > > > Higher Oil prices always led to higher inflation rates in the past. > > > > Stephen Leeb (president of Leeb Capital Management and author of ' > > The Oil Factor - Protect Yourself (AND PROFIT) from the coming Energy > > Crisis'. said during an interview with Jim Puplava of Financial Sense > > Newshour : > > > > Sharply rising energy prices, similar the the 70's, will lead to > > double digit inflation figures over the next 10 years. It's going to > > turn the economy on its head. END. > > > > Ok you'll say, higher Oil prices are a worry indeed but didn't > > Greenspan came out lately assuring us that higher Oil prices are just > > temporary ? Sure he did, but let me ask you this : Whose words carry > > more credibility when it comes to future Oil prices, Oil expert Alan > > Greenspan or Oil experts such as Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell and > > Kenneth Deffeyes ? Simmons, Campbell and Deffeyes are very very > > resolute in their statements and they aren't projecting a pretty > > picture. The end of cheap Oil has arrived ! Chapter VIII 'Gold & Oil' > > will discuss the details. > > > > So Oil prices which won't come down most probably lead to higher > > Inflation rates and therefore higher Gold prices. > > > > Summary > > > > Gold is trading nowhere near an historic high as some experts do > > suggest. Historical averages do suggest the following prices for Gold > > as being historic highs in today's environment : > > > > Projected Historic Highs for Gold according to: > > > > DOW/GOLD ratio : +$2000 > > Gold Long term average : +$1500 > > Gold/Oil ratio : +$1500 > > Gold/CRB : +$700 > > > > Eric Hommelberg > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] <ehommelberg%40golddrivers.com> > > www.golddrivers.com > > > > April 8, 2005 > > > > NOTE : Readers who want to join the GDR mailing list can drop a mail > > > > Email this Article to a Friend > > > > > > > > > > -- > http://www.vividtrader.blogspot.com >
