oke.. oke .. nanti saya pasangin bloomberg. :D
On 2/18/08, kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > coal eMANG eDAN,... > > i admit it, i had it wrong for being too conservative on energy's > price... i might change my coal's counter EPS Forecast.. > > Tembus $150 terpaksa semua asumsi direvisi, sensitivitas EPS Forecast > perusahaan coal mesti naik minimal 100%.., in some cases yg > batubaranya kualitas eksport malah bisa sampe 200%an... > > awal 07 harga coal di $50an per Ton, desember akhir masih di $100an... > > tadi malam aja sempat $139 > > FYI harga rata2 selling price coalnya emiten di pasar kita tuh paling > tinggi BUMI (rata2nya berkisar 70-80% harga di pasar internasional), > sementara PTBA sekitar 45-60%an harga di pasar internasional... > > say untuk tahun ini harga rata2 coal di level $125 aja, > > dengan asumsi selling price BUMI di $96, trus 2008 produksinya 75 > juta Ton. COGS per tonnya $30, maka revenuenya, COGS en gross > marginnya jadi $7.2 Billion, $2.25billion, en 69%. > > trus operating expensenya rata2 4% dr revenue jd skitar $360 > million.. operating profitnya jadi $4.59 bILLION. > > Interest expense adalah sedikit buat bayar utang yg tinggal sekiprit > (YG PAKE COUPON, YG CONVERTIBLE KAN GA PAKE KUPON) kira2 aja paling > $50 million-an... > > net profit before taxesnya jadi $4 Billion, > dikurangin provisi tax 30% jd $ 2.8 Billion... > dikurangin minority interest jatahnya TATA (30%) jadi $1.96 Bio > > issued shares 19.4 Bio > > Earning per share BUMI2008 jadi $0.101 > > > Darn EPS di level $1.01 ini tadinya adalah perkiraan di tahun 2010 > andai Coalnya bergerak normal... gile bener coal naeknya... > > itu BUMI.. > > > sama PTBA juga gitu naek minimal 1.5 kali lipat dr EPS Forecast > lama., kalo railway bisa eksekusi sebelum 2008 abis malah bisa diatas > itu... ancer2nya ntar kalo EPS 2007 keluar dikaliin 2 - 2.5 aja > minimal, likely EPS 2008 bakal di level segitu.. > > Coal januari 2007 $55 -> Coal Januari 2008 $100 > > > Sick!!... economic slowdown huh??... cihh definitely not from the > energy consumption side... > > darn, ketinggalan terus... not seeing that comin... > > udah waktunya sayah minta pasangin Bloomberg ke bos saya... bisa > ketinggalan terus kalo kaya gini.., Darn... > > > asem... > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "sulistyo_winarto" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > Dear all, kagak ngomporin ya... Thanks > > > > di KONTAN juga ada.. > > > > BUMI, PTBA, ITMG, ANTM, UNTR, AALI, TINS dsb..... (yang rally lama, > > istirahat dulu lah) > > > > Coal supply cuts mount as Rio declares force majeure > > > > Reuters - Friday, February 15 > > > > Prices of thermal coal, used in power generation and the > manufacturing > > of cement, have also vaulted in recent weeks, due to supply troubles > > from Australia and China. (Reporting by Fayen Wong; Editing by James > > Thornhill and Louise Heavens) - SYDNEY, Feb 15 - Rio Tinto Ltd on > Friday > > declared force majeure at a northern Queensland coal mine after > heavy > > rains, the sixth miner in Australia to default on coal shipments > this > > year. > > > > Rio's force majeure at its 4.5 million tonnes a year Hail Creek > coking > > coal mine could put further upward pressure on spot prices, which > have > > already jumped over 80 percent to more than $270 a tonne since the > start > > of the year. > > > > "A confluence of disruptions with three of the top five exporters > around > > the world having problems has resulted in record prices which are > > unlikely to moderate," said a Sydney-based coal analyst. He > declined to > > be unidentified because he was not authorised to speak to the media > > > > > > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + + > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
