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M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday due to late-day rally as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1850.27 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1638.00 is the
next downside target.
The March S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1354.10. Today's high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1395.15 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1229.20 is the next
downside target.
The Dow closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,321. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,617 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 11,524 is the next downside
target.
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INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest
March T-bonds closed up 3/32's at 119-31
March T-bonds closed slightly higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at
119-25. Trading was subdued as the market is awaiting the FOMC's interest rate decision on Wednesday. While there is still
the possibility that the Fed will make further cuts to interest rates those odds have decline following the equity market's rebound
off last week's lows. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
118-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last Thursday's gap crossing at 121-14 would
temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is last Thursday's gap crossing at 121-14. Second resistance
is last Wednesday's high crossing at 122-26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-24. Second support is
last Friday's low crossing at 118-07.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
March crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9027.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.09 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 85.37 is the
next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 91.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 93.09. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 85.42. Second support is December's low crossing at 85.37.
March heating oil closed higher on Monday as it extends last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at
249.58 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 256.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this
month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2007-08 rally crossing at 234.77 is the next downside target. First resistance
is today's high crossing at 252.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 256.08. First support is last
Tuesday's low crossing at 239.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 233.85.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at
233.52 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 241.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February
renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 221.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's
high crossing at 237.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 241.59. First support is last Tuesday's low
crossing at 224.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2007-08 crossing at 224.00.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.943 confirming that a
short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last
week's low, the reaction high crossing at 8.14 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 7.534 would
renew the decline off this month's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.054 then the reaction high crossing at
8.140. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 7.534. Second support is December's low crossing at 7.002.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 76.17. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at
75.27 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 77.50 are needed to renew the rally off this
month's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.26 then last week's high crossing at 77.50. First
support is today's low crossing at 75.62. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.27.
The March Euro gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 149.160 is the next upside target. Closes
below last Tuesday's low crossing at 144.880 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 147.800. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 149.160. First support is last Thursday's gap crossing at
145.780 then last Tuesday's low crossing at 144.880.
The March British Pound closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 2.0055 is the next upside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.9831 then the reaction high crossing at 2.0055. First support is last Friday's gap
crossing at 1.9700 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.9642.
The March Swiss Franc gapped up and closed above the 10-day moving average
crossing at .9151 on Monday leaving a one-
day island bottom on the daily chart. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are diverging and are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally,
monthly resistance crossing at .9300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9077 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at .9230. Second
resistance is this month's high crossing at .9235. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9151 then the 20-day
moving average crossing at .9077.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average
crossing at .9906. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, gap resistance
crossing at 99.82 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's gap crossing at .9770 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 99.65. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 99.82.
First support is last Thursday's gap crossing at 97.70 then last Tuesday's low crossing at 96.40.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9281 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at .9629 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Thursday's gap crossing at .9480. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .9565. First support is last Friday's
low crossing at .9307. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9281.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold closed higher on Monday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 922.50 thereby renewing the rally off last
year's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at
950.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 855.00 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 935.40 then monthly resistance crossing at 950.00. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 902.50 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 889.20.
March silver closed higher on Monday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 16.715 thereby renewing this month's
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.907 are needed
to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16.795 then this month's high
crossing at 17.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.249 then the 20-day moving average crossing at
15.907.
March copper closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 319.94. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 285.30 is the next downside
target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 324.55. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 327.50.
First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 301.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 285.30.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.830 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.437 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 22.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 21.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for a
possible test of the late-December low crossing at 20.22 later this month.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's rally
above the 10-day moving average. The high-
range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, January's high crossing at 13.09 is the next
upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.23. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 66.66 is the
next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's gap crossing at 70.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
March corn closed up 4-cents at 5.02 1/4.
March corn closed higher on Monday as it extends last Friday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.97
signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
If March extends today's rally, a test of this month's high crossing at 5.19 is the next upside target. Closes below last
Wednesday's low crossing at 4.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally,
weekly resistance crossing at 5.28 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish with today's rally
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.04 1/2 then
this month's high crossing at 5.19. First support begins with today's low crossing at 4.90 1/4 then the 20-day moving average
crossing at 4.83 1/4.
March wheat closed up 30-cents at 9.63.
March wheat closed limit up on Monday as wheat markets are in a bidding war for planted acres in the U.S. this year. Stronger
outside markets along with a weaker U.S. Dollar also provided underlying support to the market. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 9.86 are needed to renew this month's rally.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.79 would renew the decline off December's high and could lead to a test of the 62%
retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 8.57 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 30-cents at 10.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed limit up on Monday as it rebounds off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above this month's high crossing at 10.33 would renew this winter's rally while opening the door into
uncharted territory marking upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.45 1/2 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 30-cents at 12.97.
March Minneapolis wheat gapped up and closed limit up on Monday as it extends this winter's rally. The limit up close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday as the market is trying to bid additional spring wheat acres. Tight spring wheat
supplies also provide underlying support to the market. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With March trading into uncharted territory, upside targets are
hard to project. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed up 10 3/4-cents at 12.53 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's short covering rally. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.56 1/2 would temper the near-term
bearish outlook in the market. If March renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally
crossing at 11.46 1/2 is the next downside target.
March soybean meal closed up $1.60 at $336.60.
March soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.30 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook in the market. If March extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 300.90 is the next downside
target.
March soybean oil closed up 54ts. at 52.55
March soybean oil closed higher on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.28. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, January's high crossing at 54.32 is the next
downside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 49.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $1.05 at $57.25.
February hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.81. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that
a short-term low might be in or is near. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 56.85 confirms that a short-term low
has been posted. If February extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 59.25 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.33 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is
today's high crossing at 57.40 then gap resistance crossing at 59.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
55.81 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.33.
February bellies closed up $2.37 at $88.25.
February bellies closed sharply higher on Monday and above the upper boundary of this month's trading range crossing at
87.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November-December downtrend line crossing
near 88.60 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
84.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
February cattle closed down $0.65 at 90.75.
February cattle closed lower on Monday and below the 75% retracement level of
the 2006-07-rally crossing at 91.22. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.63 are needed to confirm that a low has been
posted. If February renews this month's decline, last November's low crossing at 87.60 is the next downside target.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.57 at $102.67.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 101.99. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.24 are needed to confirm that a
bottom has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 98.98 is the next
downside target.
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____________________________________________________________________________
E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/
WINNERS
PL.F08 PLATINUM Jan 2008 1752.2 71.5 +4.73
KB.Y$$ CHEESE-BLOCKS (SPOT) Cash 1740 90 +4.43
W.U08 WHEAT Sep 2008 910.75 30.00 +3.86
KW.U09 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT Sep 2009 870 30 +3.85
YW.Z08 WHEAT (MINI) Dec 2008 929.5 30.0 +3.80
MW.N09 HARD RED SPRING WHEAT Jul 2009 1000 30 +3.80
SB.V08 SUGAR #11-WORLD Oct 2008 13.06 0.41 +3.35
FF.Y$$ 30 DAY FED NDS Cash 3.60 0.13 +3.24
PB.Q08 FROZEN PORK BELLIES Aug 2008 89.00 2.45 +2.84
LH.J08 LEAN HOGS Apr 2008 63.50 1.55 +2.43
LOSERS
BCX.Z08 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Dec 2008 79.25 -5.00 -7.14
SM.V08 SOYBEAN MEAL Oct 2008 323.5 -6.5 -2.21
S.X09 SOYBEANS Nov 2009 1184 -20 -1.93
YK.X09 SOYBEANS (MINI) Nov 2009 1184.0 -20.0 -1.92
EMX MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX (E-MINI) 1088.30 -22.84 -1.84
NIX.H08 10 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2008 4.21926 -0.08570 -1.80
NGX.H08 5 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2008 3.50032 -0.06776 -1.58
LB.U08 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Sep 2008 271.9 -3.7 -1.30
CL.M08 CRUDE OIL Jun 2008 88.78 -1.13 -1.20
RB.Y$$ CHEESE-BARRELS (SPOT) Cash 1730.0 -20.0 -1.01
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____________________________________________________________________________
E X T R E M E S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________
Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/
WINNERS
AAB.WS LEHMAN BROS HOLDINGS WTS 7.36 7.35 +130.55
HOVNP HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES PR 9.25 1.85 +28.46
ACOR ACORDA THERAPEUTICS INC 27.20 5.42 +24.68
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA 8.80 1.59 +21.40
HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES A 8.78 1.49 +20.78
FBC FLAGSTAR BANCORP INC 8.97 1.41 +20.23
AXR AMREP CORP 41.78 6.15 +20.13
HRT ARRHYTHMIA RESRCH TECH 8.73 1.35 +19.62
ADVNA ADVANTA CORP CL A 8.17 1.41 +19.32
KWD KELLWOOD CO 20.30 3.20 +19.23
LOSERS
ADS ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS 42.48 -23.12 -30.83
CRNT CERAGON NETWORKS LTD 8.5701 -1.7599 -17.79
REDF REDIFF.COM INDIA LTD ADS 8.83 -1.87 -17.14
YRCW YRC WORLDWIDE INC 16.06 -2.80 -16.38
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC 42.55 -11.51 -15.58
GHM GRAHAM CORP 35.04 -7.61 -14.52
EXB CLAYMORE CLR GB EXC BAM 24.2601 -3.2399 -12.04
HSR HI-SHEAR TECH CORP 12.1800 -1.4599 -11.97
PDQ POWERSHARES FTSE RAFI ASPC 22.15 -2.75 -10.87
TRCR TRANSCEND SERVICES INC 10.3899 -1.7401 -10.71
_____________________________________________________________________
T H A N K Y O U
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