saya kurang setuju dengan kalimat terakhir bahwa market selalu akan buat new high, lihat aja Nikkei yang nggak pernah break high lagi indeksnya
On 1/21/08, kecoak ganteng <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > Artikel ini cukup menarik, di ambil dari Yahoo Finance, dimana menurut saya > point yg menarik : > > - Definisi resesi adalah pelambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 6 bulan > berturut2, artinya resesi atau tidak di AS baru ketahuan sekitar Juni 2008. > - Hanya terjadi 10 resesi di AS selama 63 tahun. Rata-rata lamanya resesi > adalah hanya 10 bulan. Rata2 penurunan aktivitas ekonomi sekitar hanya 2.5 > persen. > > Mudah2an artikel ini membuat tambah tenang bukannya tambah rusuh :D > > > Rethinking the Recession > > by Ben Stein > Posted on Thursday, January 17, 2008, 12:00AM > > > Are we in a recession? No one knows. Indeed, it's literally impossible to > know. > > A recession is six consecutive months of negative economic growth. At most, > December 2007 would be our first month, so we wouldn't know until sometime > in June 2008 if, by the end of May 2008, we'd been in a decline for six > straight months. So no matter what anyone tells you, we can't know if we're > in a recession yet. > > Mea Culpa > > The December retail sales figures were poor. Obviously, housing is weak. > Autos look to be softening (good time to buy a Cadillac). Even most > commodities are off their peak. > > More important than any of these to us economists, however, are two factors. > First, because of repeatedly being stung by losses in real estate lending, > lenders are reluctant to lend, which is causing a slowdown in economic > activity. Second, money supply growth has been sluggish for the last several > months. This is often a signal of a weakening economy. > > I want to be honest here (and everywhere): This slowdown is happening faster > and harder than I thought it would. I was too optimistic. My optimism was > based on a belief that the Federal Reserve would act more aggressively than > it has in fighting the slowdown. It didn't, and we're paying the price. > > Let's hope that Ben Bernanke, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board, has > learned his lesson. Hopefully, he'll now plunge in with both feet to get a > lot of liquidity into the system, and reassure lenders that he'll backstop > them and not let them fail. He's now perceived as weak, and he'll have to > act aggressively to get the ball rolling again. But he can do it. > > Retro Recessions > > For now, however, assume that he's doing too little too late, and that we'll > have a recession. Here, then, are a few salient facts about postwar > recessions, which I've discussed before. > > There have been 10 recessions in the last 63 years. The average length of > these downturns has been about 10 months. The average decline in economic > activity from peak to trough was about 2.5 percent. No decline has been > worse than about 3.7 percent. > > In the past 25 years, there have only been 2 recessions, which is an > extremely good record. The two recessions -- in the early 1990s and the > 2000-2001 correction -- have been extremely brief. The really severe > recessions of the postwar era have been engineered by the Fed to fight > inflation -- in the early 1970s and early '80s. > > When the Fed is fighting to promote expansion and not to rein it in, > recessions tend to be brief. Real consumption doesn't fall for more than a > few months in such cycles. It would be almost unheard of for there to be a > year-on-year fall in retail sales from 2007-2008 if the Fed is actively > liquefying the economy. > > Unemployment always rises in recessions. The degree of the rise is usually > modest, generally only about 2 percentage points, although some -- like the > one engineered by the Fed in the early Reagan years -- have gone as high as > 4 points. The average length of involuntary unemployment during recessions > is about six weeks. > > Slacker Overboard > > There is some good news in here. > > Even in a recession, more than 90 percent of workers who want to work will > be employed. Even in a recession, most businesses will make a profit. Even > in a recession in this era, more than 10 million men and women will need > cars and trucks. Many millions will need new homes. Tens of millions will > need retirement investment products and life insurance. In the United > States, even in a recession, there are plenty of people with money to spend. > > Those who tend to their work, who get to the office or showroom or shop > early, stay late, work hard, stay on the phones dialing for deals (as my > pal, Barron Thomas, puts it), will make money. Those who stay sharp and make > a point of befriending their clients will make money. Yes, some extra effort > will be needed, but it'll pay off. There's still money to be made, even when > the economy itself has slowed down. > > It's the guy or gal who puts in extra effort who stays ahead and even > prospers when the economy is in a slowdown. The easygoing, laid-back > time-servers get tossed overboard. > > Stay Hungry (Not Literally) > > There's another key truth about recessions: They always end, and the economy > always goes on to a new plateau. It may take a while, but the stock market > always moves on to a new high. > > So stay hungry. Work harder. Dig deeper. Keep investing in broad indexes. > You'll come out all right on the other side. > >
