Buat yg mau ikutan belajar behavioural analysis of stock, mumpung lagi libur panjang. Analisa perilaku pasar (Bahavioural Finance)
Kebanyakan asumsi yg dipakai sebagai dasar Investment Forecasting dan management portofolio adalah salah. Mereka mengabaikan faktor EMOSIONAL dan PSIKOLOGICAL dari pelaku pasar. Ketakutan, ketamakan, risk seeking/aversion, tekanan Peer group, semua ini memainkan peranan yg penting dalam menentukan performance dari Fund manager. Analisa perilaku pasar berasal dari study psikologis terhadap proses Human Decision Making. Beberapa hal PENTING yg didapatkan study ini ialah: - Fund Manager terlalu percaya diri pada kemampuan Forecastingnya, melebihi yang sewajarnya. - FM cenderung memproses informasi secara tidak efisien. - FM cenderung mengalamai pengalaman `The illusion of control". - FM cenderung bertindak seolah olah keputusan investasi adalah ilmu pasti dan melupakan aspek Probability Distribution outcome dari hasil decisionnya. - FM cenderung membuat different trade-off decisions depending on the current context. - Give undue credence to Researh GURUS. - FM cenderung mempertahankan bahkan menambah posisi yg kalah. These psychological biases give rise to excessive trading and retention of losing positions well after the evidence indicates that the basis for the original investment has changed. The empirical results of this study show that most managers underperform their benchmarks, and intuitively most investors are aware of the facts, although the urge to deny overpowers these rational conclusions. Underperformance is typically explained away with the use of alternative time horizons, or by ascribing irrationality to recent investors (ie, the market is wrong), or by confidently asserting that things are just about to turn favourable. Several useful suggestions have been advanced to help investors deal with these behavioural impediments to investment success. These are:. 1. Menerima kenyataan bahwa Investasi adalah Seni yg besifat probabilistic. 2. Menyadari dan menghindarkan keadaan yg mengarah kepada PERCAYA DIRI yg berlebihan 3. Mencari pendapat CONTRARY terhadap perndapat kita. 4. Have a written plan for each position, especially the "exit strategies". 5. Membuat rencana tertulis untuk setiap saham terutama EXIT STRATEGY. 6. Create feedback loops that allow for process analysis and improvement. REFERENCES: 1. Kahneman, Daniel, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, London: Cambridge University Press, 1982. 2. Poundstone, William. Prisoner's Dilemma. New York: Anchor Books (Doubleday), 1992. 3. Cialdini, Robert B. Influence (The Psychology of Persuasion). New York: Quill, William Morrow, 1984. 4. Thaler, Richard H., ed. Advances in Behavioral Finance. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1982. 5. Hogarth, Robin M. and Melvin W. Reder, eds. Rational Choice. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1986. 6. Dreman, David. Contrarian Investment Strategy. New York: Random House, 1979. 7.Thaler, Richard H. The Winner's Curse, New York: The Free Press, 1992. 8.Paulos, John Allen. Innumeracy, New York: Hill and Wang, 1988. 9.Bernstein, Peter L. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
