Pak Aria Bela, Tbumi n rekan OB... China ngkali ngirit Nikel untuk
produksi. Just sharing aja... nggak ngomporin ni. Moga Cuan lah
China's Use of Nickel Pig Iron to Curb Prices in 2008 (Update1)
By Li Xiaowei
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's use of nickel pig iron for stainless
steel production will ``stay forever'' and constrain prices for
primary nickel from rising to records, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore and containing
4 to 10 percent nickel, is bound to ``stay forever'', said Bonnie
Liu, a Macquarie analyst in a phone interview today. Nickel may
range within $25,000 and 35,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange
next year and will ``hardly ever'' return to the record $51,800
reached in May, she said.
China, the world's biggest stainless steel producer, increased
production of pig iron this year after nickel jumped 55 percent to
May's record high. The metal has since tumbled by half.
The country's output of pig iron will rise to 110,000 metric tons in
terms of nickel metal contained, from an estimated 85,000 tons this
year and 25,000 tons in 2006, Liu said. China started producing
nickel pig iron in the last couple of years.
Macquarie's forecasts are lower than those of Jiangsu Xuzhou
Jinxiang Metallurgy Co. which has said next year's output may rise
to as much as 140,000 tons, from 110,000 tons this year.
``We are bullish about the prospects for pig iron as it has replaced
refined nickel as the choice of purchase by steelmakers'' such as
Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co., the nation's largest, said Zhong
Yongqi, general manager of Xuzhou, said today by phone fromn Xi'an.
The break-even price for electric arc furnace-produced pig iron is
around $23,000 for each ton of the metal contained and that for
blast furnace-produced pig iron is $20,000, Zhong said.
`Not Constrained'
Pig iron producers offer their nickel units at a 15 to 20 percent
discount to primary nickel, with additional benefits coming from the
iron and chromium content that is included in the price, said
Macquarie analysts in an e-mailed report today.
``The output of recoverable nickel'' from the pig iron ``does not
look constrained, and will simply be determined by the level of
demand from the stainless steel sector as well as global nickel
prices in 2008,'' analysts led by Liu said in the report.
