Good Day Mbah..! MARKET OUTLOOK Wednesday, December 05, 2007 It's going to be another surprising market... Please take a good note that if the main index today rises more than 20 points, it may go ahead to test 2800 and 3000, but if fails it will go down as much as 18 points. If it falls more than 30 points by the close then, tomorrow shopping would be eventually for most of investors... There are expectations that the central bank would cut interest rate as targeted for this year to 8%, but some are also expecting that it must be left unchanged to maintain investment flow... so, the winner will take it all...And any option is set to bring positive impact to Bursa Efek Indonesia. Main index: 2733-2766 S2: 2712 R2: 2789 TLKM: 10,350-10,800. It is still moving in an unsafe territory... Its ADRs in NY rose 0.7% to $44.60, or equal with IDR10,358 based on USD/IDR of IDR9,290. Chart says building volume is still in the making...buy on weakness ISAT: 8,400-8,850. Its ADRs in NY rose 2.7% to $47.01, or equal with IDR8,734. No overhang or bullish trap, but (for short term investors) please take profits if it fails to break above IDR8,850. ANTM: 4,200-4,700. As expected, LME nickel return to downward drift after it fails to stay above $30,000. Yesterday it fell 5% to below $25,500. For Antam, which has long contracts with its traditional clients, the current nickel price is still higher than that of it had in 2006, and would still boost its 2007 net profit to increase by more than three times. BUY at the lower end of the range as the rebalancing of the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index, which occurs on the 5-10th business day of January, could prove bullish for LME nickel. INCO: 92,800-9,5,500. It is now trading at a p/e of 6.8 times its 2008 prospective earnings, with room for a further increase is seen wide open. BUY on weakness BUMI: 5,800-6,900. It may be trading wide, with further "speculative" buying by some local companies driving its share price to hit new highs. Beware of a severe profit taking if it fails to break above IDR7,100 in several sessions ahead. BMRI: 3,500-3,750. It has the weirdest chart for now, with selling pressure likely to occur if it fails to break above IDR3,725-stibborn resistance level. CTRA: 730-810. It has been moving as expected, but would prone to profit taking due to an increase in selling volumes. BUY at the lower end of the range as it is still trading at 36% discount to its NAV. SPECIAL MENTION: PGAS: 15,500-16,900. There have been lots of confusions... One local newspaper looks to always trying to put out bad news on PGAS by saying that the pipeline to Singapore from Grissik is broken down and under maintenance. BUT PGAS executives have denied the story and saying any damage would be covered by insurance. So far there should a minor potential damage to the company's earnings. I still go with BUY at the lower end of the range or at any level below IDR16,000. It may hit IDR17,600 by the end of 2007. Monitoring: UNSP: 2,200-2,500 BTEL: 420-450 buy buy buy CNKO: 235-320 CTRS: 810-950 PTBA: 11,700-12,700 SOS BBNI: 1,990-2,200 JSMR: 1,950-2,000 MIRA: 580-660
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